{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7812ea9-9434-4c57-a8a2-cf03032da6ef", "symbol": "CRI", "name": "Carter\u2019s Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 85.294, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.18, "architecture_energy": 18.902, "architecture_maturity": 42.536, "architecture_confidence": 87.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.51, "rotation_up": 23.97, "upward_expansion": 53.74, "deceleration": 89.18, "rotation_down": 29.36, "downward_expansion": 17.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.114667, 39.865636, 39.069451, 38.237927 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.96, "trend_reference": 37.363493, "distance_from_trend": 0.069493, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.499369, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158726, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.384533, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.101119, "excess_performance": -0.024506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069493, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082179, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129844, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043845, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059452, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101119, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.922111, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6629229, "relative_activity": 1.346442, "balance": 0.922111, "dry_up": 1.089197, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092198, "annualized_volatility": 0.558355, "from_high_reference": -0.097459, "from_low_reference": 0.722866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.363493, "fair_value_reference": 47.499369, "structural_low": 31.259611, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03859, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.053577, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.052386, "worst_return": -0.116361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.113974, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.202902, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002342, "worst_return": -0.140103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025692, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.150463, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.146185, "worst_return": -0.037081, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 5155436.9, "trend": 36.75932, "fair_value": 48.014057, "relative_strength": 5.13211, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.895169, "energy": 26.290887, "activity_lines": [ 40.163333, 40.296399, 38.625948, 37.830959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.75, "volume": 3830318, "typical_volume": 4904531.2, "trend": 37.009328, "fair_value": 47.836002, "relative_strength": 7.050458, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.263868, "energy": 18.1716, "activity_lines": [ 39.424667, 40.166712, 38.764458, 37.95939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.57, "volume": 6437792, "typical_volume": 4929468.55, "trend": 37.203358, "fair_value": 47.657527, "relative_strength": 4.807255, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.635398, "energy": 18.967461, "activity_lines": [ 38.878667, 39.904182, 38.860584, 38.060079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.96, "volume": 6629229, "typical_volume": 4923517.1, "trend": 37.363493, "fair_value": 47.499369, "relative_strength": 4.384533, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.180066, "energy": 18.901661, "activity_lines": [ 39.114667, 39.865636, 39.069451, 38.237927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }