{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d781b55d-0fb6-481b-a8dd-02c8565a1574", "symbol": "HYGN", "name": "Global X Hydrogen UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 48.587, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.799, "architecture_energy": 62.436, "architecture_maturity": 13.053, "architecture_confidence": 78.681, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.33, "rotation_up": 14.18, "upward_expansion": 29.34, "deceleration": 49.26, "rotation_down": 69.7, "downward_expansion": 56.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.5482, 9.321055, 10.594962, 10.341129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.67, "trend_reference": 9.776267, "distance_from_trend": -0.113158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.206285, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.396971, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.929621, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.167834, "excess_performance": -0.003058, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113158, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.396971, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.803331, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.841393, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167834, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.618283, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48835, "relative_activity": 0.664778, "balance": 0.618283, "dry_up": 0.451875, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16255, "annualized_volatility": 0.632998, "from_high_reference": -0.451196, "from_low_reference": 0.803995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.776267, "fair_value_reference": 6.206285, "structural_low": 7.166, "invalidation": "A decisive 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49.16508, "energy": 43.148496, "activity_lines": [ 12.7244, 12.969818, 11.517571, 10.4884 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.202, "volume": 9456, "typical_volume": 66473.5, "trend": 9.3552, "fair_value": 6.211869, "relative_strength": 12.122633, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.571925, "energy": 28.516398, "activity_lines": [ 11.681467, 12.521127, 11.510905, 10.548886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.678, "volume": 15913, "typical_volume": 66765.8, "trend": 9.457933, "fair_value": 6.22458, "relative_strength": 12.882768, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.333455, "energy": 29.958847, "activity_lines": [ 11.136667, 12.156291, 11.536343, 10.634228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.491, "volume": 71930, "typical_volume": 69696.0, "trend": 9.542833, "fair_value": 6.224798, "relative_strength": 0.088369, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.72936, "energy": 21.899258, "activity_lines": [ 10.467933, 11.5828, 11.4333, 10.636361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.595, "volume": 24725, "typical_volume": 70253.55, "trend": 9.609233, "fair_value": 6.21792, "relative_strength": -8.520483, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -17.30092, "energy": 33.91428, "activity_lines": [ 9.711933, 10.894855, 11.236795, 10.575211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.692, "volume": 32955, "typical_volume": 71157.15, "trend": 9.682667, "fair_value": 6.212753, "relative_strength": -7.749444, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.439371, "energy": 41.681168, "activity_lines": [ 9.1914, 10.309582, 11.04629, 10.516034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.029, "volume": 26265, "typical_volume": 71734.25, "trend": 9.727367, "fair_value": 6.204356, "relative_strength": -15.632712, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.122025, "energy": 62.69513, "activity_lines": [ 8.690533, 9.691, 10.789305, 10.409346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.67, "volume": 48835, "typical_volume": 73460.6, "trend": 9.776267, "fair_value": 6.206285, "relative_strength": -11.929621, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.799079, "energy": 62.436476, "activity_lines": [ 8.5482, 9.321055, 10.594962, 10.341129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }