{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7826fc7-d593-4954-b2f8-453fe6365bde", "symbol": "USNZ", "name": "DBX ETF TRUST XTRACKERS NET ZERO PATHWAY PARIS ALIGNED", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.144, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.202, "architecture_energy": 59.959, "architecture_maturity": 51.141, "architecture_confidence": 79.197, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.54, "rotation_up": 56.51, "upward_expansion": 82.42, "deceleration": 61.76, "rotation_down": 26.68, "downward_expansion": 9.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.773613, 47.442742, 46.899664, 45.829163 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 49.072, "trend_reference": 44.645252, "distance_from_trend": 0.099154, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.035787, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324989, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.515127, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.138962, "excess_performance": 0.013337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099154, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033448, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324989, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012367, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005151, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004582, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138962, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.042235, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5449, "relative_activity": 0.394328, "balance": 1.042235, "dry_up": 0.233565, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023777, "annualized_volatility": 0.163606, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.262061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.645252, "fair_value_reference": 37.035787, "structural_low": 38.882425, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.01184, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.001309, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.062616, "worst_return": -0.036143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031359, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.004661, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.106192, "worst_return": -0.143939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087215, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.001829, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.193871, "worst_return": 0.049211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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43.790349, "fair_value": 36.285011, "relative_strength": 0.385932, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.209256, "energy": 50.823105, "activity_lines": [ 46.797304, 46.760356, 45.278446, 44.517785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 47.1164, "volume": 884, "typical_volume": 22484.85, "trend": 43.918069, "fair_value": 36.411194, "relative_strength": 0.210077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.297068, "energy": 47.958085, "activity_lines": [ 46.844173, 46.87642, 45.569024, 44.732369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.8887, "volume": 445, "typical_volume": 22422.15, "trend": 44.084422, "fair_value": 36.537789, "relative_strength": 0.474352, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.183765, "energy": 58.525434, "activity_lines": [ 47.202743, 47.090609, 45.910179, 44.988539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.1454, "volume": 669, "typical_volume": 19799.05, "trend": 44.224022, "fair_value": 36.658004, "relative_strength": 0.457498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.438259, "energy": 53.039627, "activity_lines": [ 47.228887, 47.120037, 46.156566, 45.186021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.5781, "volume": 5370, "typical_volume": 13545.65, "trend": 44.323349, "fair_value": 36.773064, "relative_strength": -0.15942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.559041, "energy": 49.422009, "activity_lines": [ 47.038067, 47.033754, 46.326927, 45.337897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.3326, "volume": 1422, "typical_volume": 13562.55, "trend": 44.466624, "fair_value": 36.898181, "relative_strength": 0.359444, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.378187, "energy": 48.46464, "activity_lines": [ 47.153693, 47.083108, 46.545748, 45.532042 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.072, "volume": 5449, "typical_volume": 13818.45, "trend": 44.645252, "fair_value": 37.035787, "relative_strength": 0.515127, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.202066, "energy": 59.959072, "activity_lines": [ 47.773613, 47.442742, 46.899664, 45.829163 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }