{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d78a105c-1852-49b9-9f62-be3a13a6fc42", "symbol": "4529", "name": "Electric Power Technology Limited", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.39, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.952, "architecture_energy": 40.202, "architecture_maturity": 40.209, "architecture_confidence": 76.422, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.99, "rotation_up": 18.63, "upward_expansion": 24.69, "deceleration": 48.84, "rotation_down": 62.75, "downward_expansion": 52.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.014, 4.201636, 4.464905, 4.330882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.66, "trend_reference": 4.096667, "distance_from_trend": -0.106591, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.233013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.493987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.640792, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.051724, "excess_performance": -0.389648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106591, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049979, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.493987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20734, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336408, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297017, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051724, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.599507, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 318000, "relative_activity": 0.649156, "balance": 0.599507, "dry_up": 0.354343, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18306, "annualized_volatility": 0.852956, "from_high_reference": -0.443769, "from_low_reference": 0.302491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.096667, "fair_value_reference": 7.233013, "structural_low": 2.81, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.012701, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011532, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.330097, "worst_return": -0.210728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000538, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.433087, "worst_return": -0.1341, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06378, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.007725, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.296101, "worst_return": -0.302682, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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[ 4.417333, 4.614727, 4.58019, 4.331591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.33, "volume": 81003, "typical_volume": 479567.5, "trend": 4.071667, "fair_value": 7.333269, "relative_strength": -20.366429, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.771766, "energy": 12.056033, "activity_lines": [ 4.371333, 4.524545, 4.581714, 4.349419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.11, "volume": 165321, "typical_volume": 480033.4, "trend": 4.081, "fair_value": 7.299487, "relative_strength": -22.650005, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.213842, "energy": 9.461867, "activity_lines": [ 4.282, 4.415091, 4.558095, 4.351892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.19, "volume": 130000, "typical_volume": 479081.25, "trend": 4.094667, "fair_value": 7.267308, "relative_strength": -22.372395, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.197679, "energy": 13.072723, "activity_lines": [ 4.235333, 4.350545, 4.538857, 4.358925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 3.66, "volume": 318000, "typical_volume": 489867.2, "trend": 4.096667, "fair_value": 7.233013, "relative_strength": -33.640792, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.952393, "energy": 40.201975, "activity_lines": [ 4.014, 4.201636, 4.464905, 4.330882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }