{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d78afac2-271f-449d-8422-f36349acb551", "symbol": "300424", "name": "Guangzhou Hangxin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.736, "architecture_energy": 77.556, "architecture_maturity": 25.435, "architecture_confidence": 82.127, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.48, "rotation_up": 8.98, "upward_expansion": 18.12, "deceleration": 37.39, "rotation_down": 74.52, "downward_expansion": 91.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.638667, 14.620727, 16.315, 16.870151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.22, "trend_reference": 17.619333, "distance_from_trend": -0.192932, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.183708, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.06347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.594998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.227594, "excess_performance": -0.234993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192932, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.06347, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339723, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106067, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227594, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.088075, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39110815, "relative_activity": 0.818414, "balance": 1.088075, "dry_up": 1.040132, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139024, "annualized_volatility": 0.46729, "from_high_reference": -0.3897, "from_low_reference": 0.238676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.619333, "fair_value_reference": 15.183708, "structural_low": 11.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.008987, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.004084, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.256572, "worst_return": -0.243921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033825, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.075319, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.286494, "worst_return": -0.247952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.053961, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001888, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.134545, "worst_return": -0.112843, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.83, "volume": 54028818, "typical_volume": 49254500.4, "trend": 18.072667, "fair_value": 15.184915, "relative_strength": -27.057735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.379781, "energy": 84.969461, "activity_lines": [ 14.916667, 16.536727, 17.411762, 17.717936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.72, "volume": 51149092, "typical_volume": 48136150.6, "trend": 17.912333, "fair_value": 15.177931, "relative_strength": -27.362647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.567061, "energy": 86.644137, "activity_lines": [ 13.921333, 15.627818, 16.942476, 17.372602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.66, "volume": 54536984, "typical_volume": 47655088.95, "trend": 17.755667, "fair_value": 15.177616, "relative_strength": -20.257319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.628207, "energy": 81.689372, "activity_lines": [ 13.608667, 15.008545, 16.592286, 17.098258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.22, "volume": 39110815, "typical_volume": 47788556.35, "trend": 17.619333, "fair_value": 15.183708, "relative_strength": -20.594998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.736307, "energy": 77.555676, "activity_lines": [ 13.638667, 14.620727, 16.315, 16.870151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }