{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d78dbb11-1d59-4362-b7be-34b85972006e", "symbol": "OREGE", "name": "Orege Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.897, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -3.955, "architecture_energy": 18.486, "architecture_maturity": 38.193, "architecture_confidence": 75.282, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.96, "rotation_up": 14.35, "upward_expansion": 46.11, "deceleration": 80.73, "rotation_down": 46.8, "downward_expansion": 33.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2864, 0.293255, 0.295357, 0.288596 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.281, "trend_reference": 0.2807, "distance_from_trend": 0.001069, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.340635, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.134468, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.076628, "excess_performance": 0.023317, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001069, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009712, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175069, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020652, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076628, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.546414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22376, "relative_activity": 0.308634, "balance": 0.546414, "dry_up": 0.224558, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055845, "annualized_volatility": 0.413172, "from_high_reference": -0.197143, "from_low_reference": 0.338095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2807, "fair_value_reference": 0.340635, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007833, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00753, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.07027, "worst_return": -0.184211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.118902, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.176816, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.152589, "worst_return": -0.224586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.108012, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.145784, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.069444, "worst_return": -0.242063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.235116, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.278632, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.20436, "worst_return": -0.265873, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105991, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143603, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041935, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.080997, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138983, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171171, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109215, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074194, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020906, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.592, "volume": 494598, "typical_volume": 775036.1, "trend": 0.3957, "fair_value": 0.916051, "relative_strength": 17.41348, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.426547, "energy": 52.016574, 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"activity_lines": [ 0.3018, 0.305455, 0.295071, 0.287316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.287, "volume": 2163, "typical_volume": 75809.5, "trend": 0.2821, "fair_value": 0.346776, "relative_strength": -3.719331, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.373367, "energy": 20.938854, "activity_lines": [ 0.294933, 0.302109, 0.295371, 0.287671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.286, "volume": 21455, "typical_volume": 76643.05, "trend": 0.281933, "fair_value": 0.344481, "relative_strength": -4.278207, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.124314, "energy": 22.625603, "activity_lines": [ 0.290467, 0.298727, 0.295452, 0.287923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.293, "volume": 19128, "typical_volume": 75919.05, "trend": 0.281633, "fair_value": 0.342256, "relative_strength": -3.275336, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.241024, "energy": 23.393848, "activity_lines": [ 0.289933, 0.297018, 0.296081, 0.288637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.281, "volume": 22376, "typical_volume": 72500.1, "trend": 0.2807, "fair_value": 0.340635, "relative_strength": -9.134468, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.95456, "energy": 18.485954, "activity_lines": [ 0.2864, 0.293255, 0.295357, 0.288596 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }