{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7980c47-acff-4961-b9be-bfa9d98ee2df", "symbol": "VSD-B", "name": "VibroSense Dynamics AB ser. B", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.866, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.281, "architecture_energy": 38.026, "architecture_maturity": 10.963, "architecture_confidence": 60.695, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.82, "rotation_up": 19.6, "upward_expansion": 14.9, "deceleration": 46.56, "rotation_down": 59.58, "downward_expansion": 56.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.7084, 0.760182, 0.827, 0.829389 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.736, "trend_reference": 0.828867, "distance_from_trend": -0.112041, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.895077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.611625, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.423709, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.121718, "excess_performance": -0.183213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010977, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.611625, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005097, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040852, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121718, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.439151, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 410728, "relative_activity": 1.085891, "balance": 1.439151, "dry_up": 0.557784, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.300376, "annualized_volatility": 0.784051, "from_high_reference": -0.628283, "from_low_reference": 0.36803 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.828867, "fair_value_reference": 1.895077, "structural_low": 0.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.123028, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.110295, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.078341, "worst_return": -0.377778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.260444, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.354226, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.064516, "worst_return": -0.483912, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.2553, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.302078, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.088889, "worst_return": -0.583596, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.669736, 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"2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.323913, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018135, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.352436, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.326222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.154286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107317, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.124272, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171355, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.73, "volume": 37041, "typical_volume": 150762.75, "trend": 4.686286, "fair_value": 8.905722, "relative_strength": -43.694564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.639873, "energy": 30.90898, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.718, "volume": 34030, "typical_volume": 358230.25, "trend": 0.8438, "fair_value": 1.93659, "relative_strength": -37.713487, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.883989, "energy": 27.866527, "activity_lines": [ 0.747467, 0.825273, 0.85679, 0.84831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.648, "volume": 205877, "typical_volume": 365746.5, "trend": 0.833467, "fair_value": 1.915103, "relative_strength": -42.847674, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.497973, "energy": 41.872924, "activity_lines": [ 0.7048, 0.7826, 0.837343, 0.835677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.736, "volume": 410728, "typical_volume": 378240.6, "trend": 0.828867, "fair_value": 1.895077, "relative_strength": -34.423709, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.280744, "energy": 38.026215, "activity_lines": [ 0.7084, 0.760182, 0.827, 0.829389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }