{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7ac844a-0dc1-4028-a649-07b7f52c28dc", "symbol": "OR", "name": "PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 62.65, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.511, "architecture_energy": 27.755, "architecture_maturity": 6.932, "architecture_confidence": 41.409, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.37, "rotation_up": 51.87, "upward_expansion": 50.36, "deceleration": 32.17, "rotation_down": 22.66, "downward_expansion": 11.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.72, 12.654545, 12.538095, 12.49224 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.5, "trend_reference": 12.647361, "distance_from_trend": -0.011652, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.154524, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.11689, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.927429, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.074931, "excess_performance": -0.267256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011652, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015062, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.11689, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045284, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.032926, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90130900, "relative_activity": 1.064322, "balance": 1.032926, "dry_up": 1.17945, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036308, "annualized_volatility": 0.309577, "from_high_reference": -0.181669, "from_low_reference": 0.201923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.647361, "fair_value_reference": 14.154524, "structural_low": 10.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.071294, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.077642, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.039801, "worst_return": -0.160839, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.097902, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.137648, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.076357, "worst_return": -0.224138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.182349, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.119297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015406, "worst_return": -0.308726, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -2.253707, "energy": 10.415975, "activity_lines": [ 12.52, 12.472727, 12.349048, 12.469825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.0, "volume": 131638500, "typical_volume": 106618715.0, "trend": 12.692708, "fair_value": 14.272799, "relative_strength": -16.115191, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.833573, "energy": 37.547084, "activity_lines": [ 12.713333, 12.570909, 12.421905, 12.489812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.8, "volume": 137397800, "typical_volume": 97084110.0, "trend": 12.688542, "fair_value": 14.232272, "relative_strength": -17.229089, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.723875, "energy": 38.051179, "activity_lines": [ 12.78, 12.62, 12.477619, 12.496734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.8, "volume": 40354600, "typical_volume": 88802040.0, "trend": 12.681111, "fair_value": 14.193488, "relative_strength": -15.864759, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.979472, "energy": 43.587255, "activity_lines": [ 12.82, 12.665455, 12.52619, 12.503925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.5, "volume": 90130900, "typical_volume": 84683900.0, "trend": 12.647361, "fair_value": 14.154524, "relative_strength": -16.927429, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.511153, "energy": 27.754624, "activity_lines": [ 12.72, 12.654545, 12.538095, 12.49224 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }