{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7b5f92e-3918-49c7-ba50-e38d3296502d", "symbol": "FDR", "name": "Fluidra, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.607, "architecture_energy": 15.065, "architecture_maturity": 82.982, "architecture_confidence": 67.674, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.35, "rotation_up": 28.59, "upward_expansion": 20.27, "deceleration": 43.73, "rotation_down": 29.47, "downward_expansion": 58.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.248667, 19.100485, 19.143191, 19.624416 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.360001, "trend_reference": 20.700478, "distance_from_trend": -0.016448, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.96995, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029087, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.200355, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.190779, "excess_performance": -0.31521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016448, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067243, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029087, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045352, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027477, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190779, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.010428, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1743422, "relative_activity": 1.066238, "balance": 1.010428, "dry_up": 1.188825, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047866, "annualized_volatility": 0.29374, "from_high_reference": -0.223493, "from_low_reference": 0.148984 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.700478, "fair_value_reference": 20.96995, "structural_low": 17.719999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.006855, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.028809, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.157614, "worst_return": -0.151776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027928, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.105219, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.308771, "worst_return": -0.288546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.048494, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.15933, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.236199, "worst_return": -0.331541, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.767892, "energy": 33.381923, "activity_lines": [ 19.130154, 18.952981, 19.334273, 20.15983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.129999, "volume": 2193854, "typical_volume": 1649210.35, "trend": 21.158145, "fair_value": 20.969336, "relative_strength": -28.24329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.908087, "energy": 39.481448, "activity_lines": [ 18.830292, 18.81363, 19.178395, 19.953261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.290001, "volume": 1603249, "typical_volume": 1630392.65, "trend": 20.995145, "fair_value": 20.965832, "relative_strength": -28.273854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.506914, "energy": 44.940444, "activity_lines": [ 18.607922, 18.723369, 19.059422, 19.768219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.26, "volume": 2234939, "typical_volume": 1661510.6, "trend": 20.853811, "fair_value": 20.966873, "relative_strength": -24.598685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.905369, "energy": 39.804575, "activity_lines": [ 18.747282, 18.815472, 19.046878, 19.656275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.360001, "volume": 1743422, "typical_volume": 1635114.7, "trend": 20.700478, "fair_value": 20.96995, "relative_strength": -21.200355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.606549, "energy": 15.064562, "activity_lines": [ 19.248667, 19.100485, 19.143191, 19.624416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }