{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7b605e7-be99-43e0-bb95-495b47d7d60c", "symbol": "300535", "name": "Sichuan Dowell Science and Technology Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.605, "architecture_energy": 58.455, "architecture_maturity": 69.469, "architecture_confidence": 95.954, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 26.91, "upward_expansion": 10.67, "deceleration": 60.12, "rotation_down": 53.75, "downward_expansion": 84.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.611333, 13.757537, 15.145877, 16.450502 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.55, "trend_reference": 17.959899, "distance_from_trend": -0.189862, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.703555, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073458, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.88855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.309445, "excess_performance": -0.316844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086057, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073458, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.311555, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080194, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.309445, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.487245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12979435, "relative_activity": 1.256289, "balance": 0.487245, "dry_up": 1.119954, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099743, "annualized_volatility": 0.363177, "from_high_reference": -0.388912, "from_low_reference": 0.222689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.959899, "fair_value_reference": 15.703555, "structural_low": 11.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.022009, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.002932, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.413762, "worst_return": -0.168977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0952, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.009364, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.162033, "worst_return": 0.024279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.081237, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.079387, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.227586, "worst_return": -0.022425, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.249356, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112722, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", 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-74.840902, "energy": 88.554746, "activity_lines": [ 14.044507, 14.921134, 16.666723, 17.709336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.25, "volume": 10121841, "typical_volume": 10607756.9, "trend": 18.401565, "fair_value": 15.729343, "relative_strength": -30.418834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.588561, "energy": 86.26225, "activity_lines": [ 13.713304, 14.443189, 16.201976, 17.368397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.42, "volume": 13877673, "typical_volume": 10531397.4, "trend": 18.215565, "fair_value": 15.714419, "relative_strength": -34.492887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.919728, "energy": 75.13129, "activity_lines": [ 13.231677, 13.925245, 15.7018, 16.982489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.49, "volume": 9304569, "typical_volume": 10194229.2, "trend": 18.070232, "fair_value": 15.705334, "relative_strength": -27.19384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.773369, "energy": 64.934718, "activity_lines": [ 13.241321, 13.702936, 15.353672, 16.677614 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.55, "volume": 12979435, "typical_volume": 10331565.15, "trend": 17.959899, "fair_value": 15.703555, "relative_strength": -24.88855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.604796, "energy": 58.454527, "activity_lines": [ 13.611333, 13.757537, 15.145877, 16.450502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }