{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7b8b773-6876-4772-ad40-a2c2375eb8fa", "symbol": "TRF", "name": "TRF Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.696, "architecture_energy": 28.916, "architecture_maturity": 86.921, "architecture_confidence": 90.968, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.04, "rotation_up": 19.98, "upward_expansion": 2.82, "deceleration": 51.51, "rotation_down": 45.41, "downward_expansion": 73.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 232.337997, 234.351089, 238.49838, 241.803677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 232.789993, "trend_reference": 248.686666, "distance_from_trend": -0.063922, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 358.842308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.351275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.914479, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.151176, "excess_performance": -0.107467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063922, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085921, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.351275, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054557, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.86687, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 212902, "relative_activity": 2.086084, "balance": 0.86687, "dry_up": 2.244915, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078655, "annualized_volatility": 0.32738, "from_high_reference": -0.42521, "from_low_reference": 0.080232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 248.686666, "fair_value_reference": 358.842308, "structural_low": 215.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.013986, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.031068, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.120296, "worst_return": -0.139988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.041104, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.055987, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.308511, "worst_return": -0.140099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.140602, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.142345, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.254726, "worst_return": -0.168877, 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"typical_volume": 100939.85, "trend": 253.071, "fair_value": 358.377756, "relative_strength": -14.247404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.807093, "energy": 22.713529, "activity_lines": [ 237.299335, 236.539818, 240.98119, 244.691936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 225.929993, "volume": 183720, "typical_volume": 104683.2, "trend": 250.417, "fair_value": 358.593333, "relative_strength": -18.340254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.696303, "energy": 32.050468, "activity_lines": [ 232.993999, 234.740726, 239.405809, 242.940903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 232.789993, "volume": 212902, "typical_volume": 102058.2, "trend": 248.686666, "fair_value": 358.842308, "relative_strength": -15.914479, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.696265, "energy": 28.915562, "activity_lines": [ 232.337997, 234.351089, 238.49838, 241.803677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }