{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7bbd7e9-1f96-4dd0-a8b2-7203dc1d50c1", "symbol": "600080", "name": "Ginwa Enterprise (Group) Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.534, "architecture_energy": 57.233, "architecture_maturity": 89.749, "architecture_confidence": 68.226, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.35, "rotation_up": 27.89, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.22, "rotation_down": 45.13, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.773333, 4.759636, 5.292667, 5.996774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.89, "trend_reference": 6.804, "distance_from_trend": -0.281305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.084794, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.309789, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.641301, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.37707, "excess_performance": -0.333866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.281305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137643, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.309789, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.316413, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086069, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.37707, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.112808, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9809300, "relative_activity": 0.376453, "balance": 0.112808, "dry_up": 0.491337, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094856, "annualized_volatility": 0.454091, "from_high_reference": -0.477005, "from_low_reference": 0.126728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.804, "fair_value_reference": 7.084794, "structural_low": 4.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.006775, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.008181, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.292948, "worst_return": -0.195462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027331, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.068484, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.361888, "worst_return": -0.078905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.130349, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.059406, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.167712, "worst_return": 0.033467, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.686667, 4.774545, 5.573571, 6.265312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.83, "volume": 10253400, "typical_volume": 27154155.75, "trend": 6.892333, "fair_value": 7.101758, "relative_strength": -31.286877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.232091, "energy": 61.697977, "activity_lines": [ 4.734, 4.753455, 5.421286, 6.125957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.89, "volume": 9809300, "typical_volume": 26057148.8, "trend": 6.804, "fair_value": 7.084794, "relative_strength": -31.641301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.534054, "energy": 57.232506, "activity_lines": [ 4.773333, 4.759636, 5.292667, 5.996774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }