{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7d807fb-bd84-47fb-8bbb-e55d33a67e9c", "symbol": "300895", "name": "Beijing Topnew Info & Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.104, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.798, "architecture_energy": 38.691, "architecture_maturity": 10.294, "architecture_confidence": 83.73, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.28, "rotation_up": 18.58, "upward_expansion": 4.63, "deceleration": 51.13, "rotation_down": 51.96, "downward_expansion": 75.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.050666, 50.461272, 55.199285, 57.183892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 53.709999, "trend_reference": 58.143333, "distance_from_trend": -0.076248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.824359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.315636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.984644, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003175, "excess_performance": -0.004225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036158, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.315636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.50986, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003175, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.249245, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43901188, "relative_activity": 0.949404, "balance": 1.249245, "dry_up": 0.815019, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156424, "annualized_volatility": 0.728655, "from_high_reference": -0.355918, "from_low_reference": 0.300169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.143333, "fair_value_reference": 40.824359, "structural_low": 41.310001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.033586, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018966, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.234686, "worst_return": -0.269321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.155496, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.106342, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.677867, "worst_return": -0.105813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.142574, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.041368, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.177137, "worst_return": -0.102321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.449855, "energy": 49.93077, "activity_lines": [ 51.828, 55.474181, 59.478047, 59.407247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.5, "volume": 26611568, "typical_volume": 51908165.4, "trend": 57.556333, "fair_value": 40.503077, "relative_strength": -14.177253, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.181327, "energy": 57.96753, "activity_lines": [ 49.578667, 52.868363, 57.978047, 58.628451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.029999, "volume": 47118697, "typical_volume": 50831170.55, "trend": 57.729666, "fair_value": 40.601346, "relative_strength": -7.653421, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.96341, "energy": 44.811048, "activity_lines": [ 48.973333, 51.371091, 56.877095, 58.078365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.98, "volume": 33117062, "typical_volume": 48976271.55, "trend": 57.824666, "fair_value": 40.689744, "relative_strength": -7.983094, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.906865, "energy": 46.92984, "activity_lines": [ 48.518, 50.186727, 55.742, 57.449354 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.709999, "volume": 43901188, "typical_volume": 46240795.45, "trend": 58.143333, "fair_value": 40.824359, "relative_strength": -1.984644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.798469, "energy": 38.690868, "activity_lines": [ 50.050666, 50.461272, 55.199285, 57.183892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }