{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7d877b0-127d-4d7a-b4e8-8476bb716e1f", "symbol": "AXIA", "name": "AXIA Energia", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.032, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.079, "architecture_energy": 38.934, "architecture_maturity": 13.716, "architecture_confidence": 92.131, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.69, "rotation_up": 20.96, "upward_expansion": 5.92, "deceleration": 46.79, "rotation_down": 45.12, "downward_expansion": 74.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.185333, 10.230182, 10.556619, 10.795548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.22, "trend_reference": 10.942333, "distance_from_trend": -0.066013, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.654173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.535878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.62125, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075949, "excess_performance": -0.201574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066013, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034797, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.535878, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.383745, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331662, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075949, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520891, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29904426, "relative_activity": 2.494713, "balance": 0.520891, "dry_up": 1.240007, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072662, "annualized_volatility": 0.371685, "from_high_reference": -0.245199, "from_low_reference": 0.762059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.942333, "fair_value_reference": 6.654173, "structural_low": 9.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.039062, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": 0.024039, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.209064, "worst_return": -0.146113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.11125, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.100461, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.267584, "worst_return": -0.206266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.080409, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.095034, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.363487, "worst_return": -0.136364, "sufficient": true }, 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26.414612, "activity_lines": [ 10.365333, 10.464545, 10.993857, 11.014178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.49, "volume": 10279420, "typical_volume": 11711487.15, "trend": 10.826771, "fair_value": 6.53385, "relative_strength": 1.986755, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.325244, "energy": 19.894312, "activity_lines": [ 10.444667, 10.414545, 10.921381, 10.995017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.79, "volume": 9368010, "typical_volume": 11491174.55, "trend": 10.851667, "fair_value": 6.560527, "relative_strength": -3.987727, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.703153, "energy": 28.940878, "activity_lines": [ 10.244667, 10.272909, 10.788857, 10.928129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.91, "volume": 8624412, "typical_volume": 11247698.85, "trend": 10.881333, "fair_value": 6.588242, "relative_strength": -2.965707, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.176882, "energy": 48.987004, "activity_lines": [ 10.117333, 10.193091, 10.678667, 10.867376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.47, "volume": 11559607, "typical_volume": 11191434.7, "trend": 10.922, "fair_value": 6.622098, "relative_strength": 0.586531, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.197889, "energy": 40.732236, "activity_lines": [ 10.181333, 10.231636, 10.628429, 10.840839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.22, "volume": 29904426, "typical_volume": 11987122.4, "trend": 10.942333, "fair_value": 6.654173, "relative_strength": -5.62125, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.07948, "energy": 38.93352, "activity_lines": [ 10.185333, 10.230182, 10.556619, 10.795548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }