{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7d8dee3-b98f-4b80-a1b0-c9d7d82d7211", "symbol": "ATRL", "name": "AtkinsR\u00e9alis Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.768, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.019, "architecture_energy": 14.253, "architecture_maturity": 18.625, "architecture_confidence": 61.083, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.55, "rotation_up": 21.37, "upward_expansion": 13.82, "deceleration": 59.51, "rotation_down": 35.51, "downward_expansion": 59.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.635334, 87.861454, 87.453422, 88.438903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 88.110001, "trend_reference": 90.259456, "distance_from_trend": -0.023814, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 71.46116, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.055619, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.154916, "excess_performance": -0.275338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023814, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007811, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150556, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007864, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.154916, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.593418, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2846900, "relative_activity": 1.3746, "balance": 0.593418, "dry_up": 1.201176, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061807, "annualized_volatility": 0.30221, "from_high_reference": -0.174774, "from_low_reference": 0.10872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 90.259456, "fair_value_reference": 71.46116, "structural_low": 79.470001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.052874, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.035997, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.275794, "worst_return": -0.116601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003129, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.37644, "worst_return": -0.264123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.291621, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.18628, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.446481, "worst_return": -0.234963, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.492635, "energy": 22.42263, "activity_lines": [ 89.036665, 86.810449, 87.800528, 89.20936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 88.870003, "volume": 2216900, "typical_volume": 2214025.0, "trend": 90.691898, "fair_value": 70.56402, "relative_strength": -13.527555, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.409814, "energy": 21.292629, "activity_lines": [ 89.374, 87.298697, 87.784767, 89.094572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.540001, "volume": 1732900, "typical_volume": 2109140.0, "trend": 90.562956, "fair_value": 70.876719, "relative_strength": -15.424064, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.951151, "energy": 17.444954, "activity_lines": [ 88.490667, 87.403994, 87.57394, 88.826708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.889999, "volume": 3154200, "typical_volume": 2109125.0, "trend": 90.448013, "fair_value": 71.176652, "relative_strength": -14.095611, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.965822, "energy": 9.926922, "activity_lines": [ 87.740667, 87.557272, 87.444187, 88.589743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.110001, "volume": 2846900, "typical_volume": 2071075.0, "trend": 90.259456, "fair_value": 71.46116, "relative_strength": -15.055619, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.019116, "energy": 14.252669, "activity_lines": [ 87.635334, 87.861454, 87.453422, 88.438903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }