{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7d9097c-c7d4-42d9-9f84-17cf787bc944", "symbol": "3666", "name": "Optivision Technology, Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.833, "architecture_energy": 24.307, "architecture_maturity": 28.096, "architecture_confidence": 60.259, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.01, "rotation_up": 21.33, "upward_expansion": 13.46, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 37.91, "downward_expansion": 61.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.113333, 25.093636, 25.697619, 25.966022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.25, "trend_reference": 26.511667, "distance_from_trend": -0.047589, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.53141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144978, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.177206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.096601, "excess_performance": -0.537973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144978, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118311, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.351772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032471, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096601, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745563, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279534, "relative_activity": 0.558481, "balance": 0.745563, "dry_up": 0.466381, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063671, "annualized_volatility": 0.243208, "from_high_reference": -0.254062, "from_low_reference": 0.08137 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.511667, "fair_value_reference": 29.53141, "structural_low": 23.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.011538, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.020795, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.398866, "worst_return": -0.196702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.044068, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.144934, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.637475, "worst_return": -0.404005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.101161, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.0332, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.513238, "worst_return": -0.259958, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038732, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119449, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": 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25.393334, 26.252728, 26.364286, 26.866237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.200001, "volume": 290004, "typical_volume": 562662.6, "trend": 27.761667, "fair_value": 29.613462, "relative_strength": -38.965704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.790656, "energy": 53.788197, "activity_lines": [ 25.213334, 25.964546, 26.23881, 26.684947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.5, "volume": 292003, "typical_volume": 550227.0, "trend": 27.486667, "fair_value": 29.602244, "relative_strength": -36.027514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.452868, "energy": 56.336794, "activity_lines": [ 24.903334, 25.570909, 26.057857, 26.474516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.049999, "volume": 255002, "typical_volume": 536318.55, "trend": 27.233333, "fair_value": 29.582693, "relative_strength": -35.181144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.586115, "energy": 43.924558, "activity_lines": [ 24.89, 25.353637, 25.949286, 26.317312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.15, "volume": 287200, "typical_volume": 528576.8, "trend": 26.985, "fair_value": 29.574359, "relative_strength": -33.222469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.61717, "energy": 33.920849, "activity_lines": [ 24.966667, 25.22, 25.859524, 26.182903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.1, "volume": 112005, "typical_volume": 506753.3, "trend": 26.726667, "fair_value": 29.548398, "relative_strength": -34.130956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.123365, "energy": 32.449858, "activity_lines": [ 25.03, 25.115455, 25.77, 26.061291 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.25, "volume": 279534, "typical_volume": 500525.1, "trend": 26.511667, "fair_value": 29.53141, "relative_strength": -35.177206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.833075, "energy": 24.306953, "activity_lines": [ 25.113333, 25.093636, 25.697619, 25.966022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }