{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7d9c1a0-b782-46b1-beac-c9e1a20262ff", "symbol": "7376", "name": "Csop Leveraged And Inverse Series - Csop Bitcoin Futures Daily (-1X) Inverse Product", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.217, "architecture_energy": 22.372, "architecture_maturity": 43.047, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.03, "rotation_up": 27.1, "upward_expansion": 60.2, "deceleration": 90.44, "rotation_down": 26.12, "downward_expansion": 14.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.723333, 5.800636, 5.609943, 5.544834 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.71, "trend_reference": 5.447767, "distance_from_trend": 0.048136, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.312607, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074802, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.827025, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.073804, "excess_performance": -0.040222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048136, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082531, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074802, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17131, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.15827, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140948, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.073804, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.063943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 247100, "relative_activity": 0.368663, "balance": 3.063943, "dry_up": 0.559708, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055961, "annualized_volatility": 0.336527, "from_high_reference": -0.103611, "from_low_reference": 0.639862 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.447767, "fair_value_reference": 5.312607, "structural_low": 4.636, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000409, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014731, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.162043, "worst_return": -0.1275, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.076614, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.103925, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.148, "worst_return": 0.005227, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.154001, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.208869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154001, "worst_return": 0.154001, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.239445, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095079, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": 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"close": 5.71, "volume": 247100, "typical_volume": 670260.0, "trend": 5.447767, "fair_value": 5.312607, "relative_strength": 15.827025, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.217235, "energy": 22.371876, "activity_lines": [ 5.723333, 5.800636, 5.609943, 5.544834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }