{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7deb272-2e24-486f-b29e-d63455a3db2a", "symbol": "200570", "name": "Changchai Company, Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.152, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.062, "architecture_energy": 16.874, "architecture_maturity": 12.999, "architecture_confidence": 70.886, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.56, "rotation_up": 21.55, "upward_expansion": 14.83, "deceleration": 66.47, "rotation_down": 42.95, "downward_expansion": 37.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.922667, 1.925273, 1.985476, 1.978883 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.93, "trend_reference": 1.953845, "distance_from_trend": -0.012204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.883882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02448, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.111813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.054779, "excess_performance": 0.047379, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012204, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020051, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02448, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097105, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031118, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05843, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054779, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.140788, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1360650, "relative_activity": 0.547067, "balance": 1.140788, "dry_up": 0.592685, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06268, "annualized_volatility": 0.278345, "from_high_reference": -0.178723, "from_low_reference": 0.096259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.953845, "fair_value_reference": 1.883882, "structural_low": 1.809986, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.005376, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001096, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.064356, "worst_return": -0.028436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005704, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.027422, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10396, "worst_return": -0.069892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048673, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042836, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125826, "worst_return": 0.019802, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.067168, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.063129, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.034126, "worst_return": -0.100209, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079365, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015873, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026042, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057292, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016216, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005377, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021164, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010527, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028207, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005376, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021164, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.010103, "volume": 864450, "typical_volume": 660024.85, "trend": 2.007249, "fair_value": 2.131566, "relative_strength": 1.397653, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.244605, 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"activity_lines": [ 1.927333, 1.995934, 2.017592, 1.986717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.85, "volume": 1196118, "typical_volume": 2538678.4, "trend": 1.939862, "fair_value": 1.88542, "relative_strength": -4.318887, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.694082, "energy": 36.980574, "activity_lines": [ 1.895333, 1.958452, 2.003558, 1.981005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.89, "volume": 1913750, "typical_volume": 2497435.6, "trend": 1.943518, "fair_value": 1.884711, "relative_strength": -2.240904, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.454062, "energy": 37.153744, "activity_lines": [ 1.888667, 1.932909, 1.993425, 1.977788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.98, "volume": 1425918, "typical_volume": 2490269.0, "trend": 1.949515, "fair_value": 1.884457, "relative_strength": 4.211252, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.237137, "energy": 22.275904, "activity_lines": [ 1.918, 1.930727, 1.992001, 1.980142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.93, "volume": 1360650, "typical_volume": 2487171.5, "trend": 1.953845, "fair_value": 1.883882, "relative_strength": -3.111813, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.061775, "energy": 16.873927, "activity_lines": [ 1.922667, 1.925273, 1.985476, 1.978883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }