{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7ef9544-b257-4154-ad8c-d4cccd220221", "symbol": "003033", "name": "Qingdao CHOHO Industrial Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.615, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.214, "architecture_energy": 19.655, "architecture_maturity": 15.686, "architecture_confidence": 55.528, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.43, "rotation_up": 49.88, "upward_expansion": 47.59, "deceleration": 36.64, "rotation_down": 25.12, "downward_expansion": 10.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.520668, 62.024546, 60.107111, 60.025298 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 65.0, "trend_reference": 61.401702, "distance_from_trend": 0.058603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.773288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.594181, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.60193, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018338, "excess_performance": -0.025738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058603, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042926, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.594181, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080074, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026019, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191911, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018338, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.047657, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8386146, "relative_activity": 0.933633, "balance": 2.047657, "dry_up": 1.301688, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129953, "annualized_volatility": 0.680807, "from_high_reference": -0.249648, "from_low_reference": 0.501048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.401702, "fair_value_reference": 40.773288, "structural_low": 48.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.0111, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031428, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.104425, "worst_return": -0.196512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024844, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051532, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.396897, "worst_return": -0.22614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.189629, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.084961, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.901031, "worst_return": -0.260686, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.918529, "energy": 23.4203, "activity_lines": [ 62.497333, 59.763091, 58.669083, 59.727177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.900002, "volume": 13696217, "typical_volume": 8476437.85, "trend": 62.144795, "fair_value": 40.392209, "relative_strength": 13.415418, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.083468, "energy": 40.130919, "activity_lines": [ 65.341334, 61.656546, 59.678786, 60.169733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.740002, "volume": 10584676, "typical_volume": 8753119.0, "trend": 61.833947, "fair_value": 40.55042, "relative_strength": -5.383236, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.653825, "energy": 18.669336, "activity_lines": [ 63.034668, 61.088364, 59.493801, 59.821036 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.0, "volume": 8386146, "typical_volume": 8982267.75, "trend": 61.401702, "fair_value": 40.773288, "relative_strength": 2.60193, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.214003, "energy": 19.655073, "activity_lines": [ 63.520668, 62.024546, 60.107111, 60.025298 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }