{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7f006a5-9659-4bcc-9188-050f3b179a5f", "symbol": "EUNK", "name": "iShares Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.42, "architecture_energy": 74.136, "architecture_maturity": 39.495, "architecture_confidence": 89.67, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 64.42, "upward_expansion": 88.03, "deceleration": 51.27, "rotation_down": 21.74, "downward_expansion": 14.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.479999, 104.758908, 102.818237, 101.218236 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 107.099998, "trend_reference": 99.564, "distance_from_trend": 0.07569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 83.788718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278215, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.576772, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09554, "excess_performance": 0.0309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07569, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040586, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278215, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065606, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035768, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025582, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09554, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.86896, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 296988, "relative_activity": 0.831268, "balance": 1.86896, "dry_up": 1.005526, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01955, "annualized_volatility": 0.145007, "from_high_reference": -0.004462, "from_low_reference": 0.24767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.564, "fair_value_reference": 83.788718, "structural_low": 88.980003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.009678, "positive_rate": 0.575, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": 0.002474, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.074739, "worst_return": -0.056945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014037, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.002903, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.075783, "worst_return": -0.033013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.074866, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.00532, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.154249, "worst_return": -0.115013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 64.619776, "energy": 77.569609, "activity_lines": [ 104.142665, 103.21109, 101.082761, 99.903957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 104.559998, "volume": 287296, "typical_volume": 367836.5, "trend": 98.861667, "fair_value": 83.306987, "relative_strength": 6.571853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.838602, "energy": 74.934522, "activity_lines": [ 104.353332, 103.643271, 101.601094, 100.295612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 105.279999, "volume": 464207, "typical_volume": 362942.45, "trend": 99.217667, "fair_value": 83.542243, "relative_strength": 4.816917, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.837156, "energy": 61.11242, "activity_lines": [ 104.689332, 104.075999, 102.147809, 100.709698 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.099998, "volume": 296988, "typical_volume": 357270.9, "trend": 99.564, "fair_value": 83.788718, "relative_strength": 3.576772, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.420085, "energy": 74.135653, "activity_lines": [ 105.479999, 104.758908, 102.818237, 101.218236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }