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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.373, "architecture_energy": 18.146, "architecture_maturity": 47.843, "architecture_confidence": 72.472, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.96, "rotation_up": 30.72, "upward_expansion": 55.81, "deceleration": 83.04, "rotation_down": 29.96, "downward_expansion": 21.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.276349, 51.305726, 51.27965, 51.171496 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 51.461, "trend_reference": 51.087306, "distance_from_trend": 0.007315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.125133, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092008, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.654676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005719, "excess_performance": -0.119905, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007315, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005198, "read": "Rising" }, { 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"trend": 50.958879, "fair_value": 46.66999, "relative_strength": -8.07712, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.32273, "energy": 57.818537, "activity_lines": [ 51.454417, 51.335332, 51.117687, 51.05445 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 51.231173, "volume": 607511, "typical_volume": 108779.85, "trend": 50.983908, "fair_value": 46.736097, "relative_strength": -6.166479, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.063208, "energy": 42.24055, "activity_lines": [ 51.39603, 51.327453, 51.138482, 51.072017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 51.376753, "volume": 46539, "typical_volume": 104602.35, "trend": 51.009411, "fair_value": 46.805583, "relative_strength": -7.649277, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.54075, "energy": 40.232362, "activity_lines": [ 51.385365, 51.348606, 51.172841, 51.097362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.314901, "volume": 72961, "typical_volume": 106973.05, "trend": 51.032073, "fair_value": 46.870241, "relative_strength": -8.733472, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.970655, "energy": 29.321019, "activity_lines": [ 51.359522, 51.351842, 51.200376, 51.117071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.420108, "volume": 87365, "typical_volume": 108605.85, "trend": 51.055476, "fair_value": 46.934755, "relative_strength": -6.872409, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.661192, "energy": 24.08248, "activity_lines": [ 51.366375, 51.371624, 51.237559, 51.142106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.042238, "volume": 38220, "typical_volume": 108648.3, "trend": 51.061015, "fair_value": 46.996124, "relative_strength": -6.792195, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.595544, "energy": 14.290896, "activity_lines": [ 51.254734, 51.319329, 51.237564, 51.141252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.1396, "volume": 142960, "typical_volume": 88249.3, "trend": 51.070798, "fair_value": 47.060066, "relative_strength": -7.349886, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.553101, "energy": 15.727829, "activity_lines": [ 51.208922, 51.282587, 51.245298, 51.146322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.461, "volume": 49259, "typical_volume": 89300.45, "trend": 51.087306, "fair_value": 47.125133, "relative_strength": -9.654676, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.372638, "energy": 18.146083, "activity_lines": [ 51.276349, 51.305726, 51.27965, 51.171496 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }