{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7f1adcc-f35d-4eca-a2bd-339d506dfd0b", "symbol": "CHM", "name": "Amundi STOXX Europe 600 Basic Materials UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.979, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.087, "architecture_energy": 43.283, "architecture_maturity": 22.489, "architecture_confidence": 59.669, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.87, "rotation_up": 54.84, "upward_expansion": 67.16, "deceleration": 61.43, "rotation_down": 16.57, "downward_expansion": 10.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 201.367331, 199.880179, 199.957618, 197.617289 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 206.149994, "trend_reference": 194.186332, "distance_from_trend": 0.061609, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 166.697387, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236672, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.097493, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102996, "excess_performance": -0.067895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061609, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066354, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236672, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008043, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010975, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102996, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 120.576177, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61, "relative_activity": 0.025327, "balance": 120.576177, "dry_up": 0.073803, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022079, "annualized_volatility": 0.189317, "from_high_reference": -0.011745, "from_low_reference": 0.377455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 194.186332, "fair_value_reference": 166.697387, "structural_low": 169.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.061688, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.018505, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.090739, "worst_return": 0.032637, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.090188, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.091605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090188, "worst_return": 0.090188, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017777, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098557, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000505, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056205, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-28", "close": 164.279999, "volume": 77, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 196.179993, "volume": 206, "typical_volume": 2456.75, "trend": 189.960999, "fair_value": 165.424766, "relative_strength": -3.627133, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.462509, "energy": 27.559346, "activity_lines": [ 197.227996, 199.595816, 198.066618, 195.245139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 198.399994, "volume": 313, "typical_volume": 2459.8, "trend": 191.060999, "fair_value": 165.730092, "relative_strength": -1.208667, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.482309, "energy": 24.998315, "activity_lines": [ 197.303995, 199.195997, 198.366856, 195.78959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 196.860001, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 2429.75, "trend": 192.056999, "fair_value": 166.015688, "relative_strength": -1.829959, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.254033, "energy": 20.601455, "activity_lines": [ 196.986663, 198.531816, 198.517094, 196.163719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 201.550003, "volume": 326, "typical_volume": 2427.9, "trend": 193.112666, "fair_value": 166.338727, "relative_strength": -0.316258, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.82013, "energy": 19.471997, "activity_lines": [ 198.528665, 198.765089, 199.061713, 196.776171 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 206.149994, "volume": 61, "typical_volume": 2408.45, "trend": 194.186332, "fair_value": 166.697387, "relative_strength": -1.097493, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.087494, "energy": 43.283148, "activity_lines": [ 201.367331, 199.880179, 199.957618, 197.617289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }