{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d801a394-1d46-4025-823b-4a72488524f0", "symbol": "605199", "name": "Hainan Huluwa Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.2, "architecture_energy": 38.052, "architecture_maturity": 88.091, "architecture_confidence": 78.273, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.84, "rotation_up": 22.75, "upward_expansion": 4.84, "deceleration": 59.66, "rotation_down": 44.4, "downward_expansion": 73.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.792667, 5.822727, 6.104905, 6.282559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.03, "trend_reference": 6.518333, "distance_from_trend": -0.074917, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.368265, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.469576, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.417833, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.097305, "excess_performance": -0.054102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074917, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139039, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.469576, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019009, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078235, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097305, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.986877, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8686100, "relative_activity": 0.717252, "balance": 0.986877, "dry_up": 0.880366, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091466, "annualized_volatility": 0.366548, "from_high_reference": -0.418515, "from_low_reference": 0.135593 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.518333, "fair_value_reference": 11.368265, "structural_low": 5.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.012829, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.013638, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.307082, "worst_return": -0.146986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.010512, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023204, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.192272, "worst_return": -0.141606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007121, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.017184, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.700092, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { 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6.675, "fair_value": 11.483749, "relative_strength": -27.790874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.886872, "energy": 53.117488, "activity_lines": [ 5.688, 5.883818, 6.196714, 6.377806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.74, "volume": 6246412, "typical_volume": 12277277.2, "trend": 6.571333, "fair_value": 11.424856, "relative_strength": -22.926941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.840841, "energy": 46.32154, "activity_lines": [ 5.704667, 5.817091, 6.134429, 6.317484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.03, "volume": 8686100, "typical_volume": 12110252.2, "trend": 6.518333, "fair_value": 11.368265, "relative_strength": -20.417833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.199751, "energy": 38.05248, "activity_lines": [ 5.792667, 5.822727, 6.104905, 6.282559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }