{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d80427d6-d123-4839-aecb-66208b9cc480", "symbol": "BRAG", "name": "Bragg Gaming Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.839, "architecture_energy": 34.158, "architecture_maturity": 17.378, "architecture_confidence": 87.548, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.83, "rotation_up": 16.07, "upward_expansion": 5.33, "deceleration": 44.63, "rotation_down": 58.21, "downward_expansion": 76.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.347333, 2.404727, 2.436619, 2.465355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.3, "trend_reference": 2.533667, "distance_from_trend": -0.092225, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.433846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.576727, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.363769, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.101563, "excess_performance": -0.221984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092225, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082005, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.576727, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313638, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026893, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101563, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.514849, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14300, "relative_activity": 0.35612, "balance": 0.514849, "dry_up": 0.948823, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139799, "annualized_volatility": 0.798327, "from_high_reference": -0.602763, "from_low_reference": 0.167513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.533667, "fair_value_reference": 5.433846, "structural_low": 1.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.060417, "positive_rate": 0.190476, "directional_follow_through": 0.190476, "median_excess_return": -0.078152, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.192182, "worst_return": -0.375776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.184919, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.21205, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.374593, "worst_return": -0.496075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.266635, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.27175, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.236156, "worst_return": -0.484087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.304198, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.361375, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.240575, "worst_return": -0.624791, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040616, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.113543, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113402, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090226, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.181669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25969, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053601, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.340796, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190647, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101322, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187279, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.45, "volume": 196700, "typical_volume": 151130.0, "trend": 5.115667, "fair_value": 9.337179, "relative_strength": 44.01695, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.059158, "energy": 92.757989, "activity_lines": [ 7.183333, 6.360182, 5.53581, 5.293677 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 7.28, "volume": 106200, "typical_volume": 153385.0, "trend": 5.189333, "fair_value": 9.353718, "relative_strength": 40.091091, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.277229, "energy": 88.14414, "activity_lines": [ 7.297333, 6.649091, 5.743857, 5.433312 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 7.3, "volume": 173700, "typical_volume": 155430.0, "trend": 5.252667, "fair_value": 9.372308, "relative_strength": 35.105865, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.533147, "energy": 80.282181, "activity_lines": [ 7.328, 6.888182, 5.940762, 5.569484 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 7.0, "volume": 82500, "typical_volume": 156660.0, "trend": 5.319667, "fair_value": 9.389615, 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2.473571, 2.527892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.83, "volume": 53400, "typical_volume": 103490.0, "trend": 2.639, "fair_value": 5.548974, "relative_strength": -22.684941, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.242833, "energy": 13.491687, "activity_lines": [ 2.582, 2.477455, 2.507381, 2.539613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.36, "volume": 33900, "typical_volume": 50255.0, "trend": 2.616667, "fair_value": 5.52609, "relative_strength": -33.362465, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.245409, "energy": 19.761011, "activity_lines": [ 2.535333, 2.459818, 2.494286, 2.521613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.32, "volume": 83300, "typical_volume": 48780.0, "trend": 2.597667, "fair_value": 5.496987, "relative_strength": -32.754172, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.975163, "energy": 16.897686, "activity_lines": [ 2.469333, 2.445455, 2.477143, 2.502473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.3, "volume": 20900, "typical_volume": 48290.0, "trend": 2.577667, "fair_value": 5.467179, "relative_strength": -31.130768, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.38659, "energy": 21.751202, "activity_lines": [ 2.401333, 2.425636, 2.457476, 2.483269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.3, "volume": 14300, "typical_volume": 40155.0, "trend": 2.533667, "fair_value": 5.433846, "relative_strength": -31.363769, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.839211, "energy": 34.158442, "activity_lines": [ 2.347333, 2.404727, 2.436619, 2.465355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }