{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d80c036a-a16f-4683-a23c-ec6ec5402f79", "symbol": "FAR", "name": "Ferro-Alloy Resources Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.802, "architecture_energy": 89.276, "architecture_maturity": 58.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.428, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 15.94, "upward_expansion": 20.59, "deceleration": 37.84, "rotation_down": 78.39, "downward_expansion": 98.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.040327, 0.042916, 0.046705, 0.051269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0375, "trend_reference": 0.058413, "distance_from_trend": -0.358023, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.068256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.450598, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.452363, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.456522, "excess_performance": -0.507757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.358023, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11486, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.450598, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.484524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.456522, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.285154, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3420528, "relative_activity": 0.640344, "balance": 0.285154, "dry_up": 1.363643, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113026, "annualized_volatility": 0.484176, "from_high_reference": -0.75, "from_low_reference": 0.102941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.058413, "fair_value_reference": 0.068256, "structural_low": 0.034, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.04717, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.038531, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 2.647059, "worst_return": -0.287671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.046185, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.070423, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 2.37037, "worst_return": -0.525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.087496, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.181619, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.407407, "worst_return": -0.564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090164, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264249, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051852, "active": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.744726, "energy": 76.958655, "activity_lines": [ 0.046333, 0.047836, 0.051516, 0.056294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0445, "volume": 1838927, "typical_volume": 6028140.05, "trend": 0.060823, "fair_value": 0.069621, "relative_strength": -39.14151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.408383, "energy": 79.55156, "activity_lines": [ 0.045473, 0.047065, 0.050413, 0.055202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0445, "volume": 5327642, "typical_volume": 5416189.85, "trend": 0.060307, "fair_value": 0.069202, "relative_strength": -39.351455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.422425, "energy": 75.919241, "activity_lines": [ 0.04488, 0.046413, 0.049494, 0.054149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0375, "volume": 18549618, "typical_volume": 5675661.75, "trend": 0.05933, "fair_value": 0.068705, "relative_strength": -48.938251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.408076, "energy": 84.127683, "activity_lines": [ 0.042287, 0.044551, 0.048034, 0.052678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0375, "volume": 3420528, "typical_volume": 5341706.7, "trend": 0.058413, "fair_value": 0.068256, "relative_strength": -48.452363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.802098, "energy": 89.275998, "activity_lines": [ 0.040327, 0.042916, 0.046705, 0.051269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }