{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d80dc9dc-3516-47db-9d43-9192a3256f52", "symbol": "DFE", "name": "WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.562, "architecture_energy": 81.746, "architecture_maturity": 33.222, "architecture_confidence": 64.498, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.28, "rotation_up": 82.33, "upward_expansion": 95.81, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 9.49, "downward_expansion": 17.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.708667, 21.503358, 21.326211, 21.199979 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 21.93, "trend_reference": 21.080965, "distance_from_trend": 0.040275, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.234264, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202681, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.209652, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.048294, "excess_performance": -0.122598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040275, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025578, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030196, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003625, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048294, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.674005, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1333, "relative_activity": 0.650577, "balance": 4.674005, "dry_up": 0.822006, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015868, "annualized_volatility": 0.125756, "from_high_reference": -0.004313, "from_low_reference": 0.167321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.080965, "fair_value_reference": 18.234264, "structural_low": 19.421453, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.005541, "positive_rate": 0.645161, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.001015, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.074794, "worst_return": -0.081866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.012527, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.017259, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.061636, "worst_return": -0.032528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059224, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.015253, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.108545, "worst_return": -0.152733, 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21.038261, 20.984469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.295, "volume": 1839, "typical_volume": 3727.75, "trend": 20.887645, "fair_value": 18.071886, "relative_strength": -9.994706, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.883577, "energy": 26.257301, "activity_lines": [ 21.190715, 21.165001, 21.066975, 21.014063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.450001, "volume": 1721, "typical_volume": 3392.1, "trend": 20.938762, "fair_value": 18.111163, "relative_strength": -7.781725, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.573673, "energy": 42.178911, "activity_lines": [ 21.294716, 21.225234, 21.111343, 21.050344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.674999, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 2139.55, "trend": 20.993586, "fair_value": 18.150705, "relative_strength": -6.42974, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.21108, "energy": 63.966227, "activity_lines": [ 21.444405, 21.314377, 21.178197, 21.097843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.690001, "volume": 483, "typical_volume": 2095.45, "trend": 21.043304, "fair_value": 18.191327, "relative_strength": -6.772265, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.190057, "energy": 71.267543, "activity_lines": [ 21.560334, 21.390692, 21.243475, 21.142773 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.93, "volume": 1333, "typical_volume": 2048.95, "trend": 21.080965, "fair_value": 18.234264, "relative_strength": -8.209652, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.562201, "energy": 81.745673, "activity_lines": [ 21.708667, 21.503358, 21.326211, 21.199979 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }