{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d810e6aa-8100-4d1b-aadb-5ec496527460", "symbol": "HASH", "name": "Hashdex Nasdaq CME Crypto Index ETP", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.208, "architecture_energy": 29.173, "architecture_maturity": 81.123, "architecture_confidence": 81.5, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.7, "rotation_up": 27.64, "upward_expansion": 17.24, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 25.11, "downward_expansion": 60.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.288, 36.685091, 38.118429, 38.922129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 37.450001, "trend_reference": 40.553666, "distance_from_trend": -0.076532, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.002724, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.235757, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.628743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003215, "excess_performance": -0.079669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076532, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130456, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.235757, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169398, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079669, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003215, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.303744, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158, "relative_activity": 0.722616, "balance": 0.303744, "dry_up": 3.26778, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048372, "annualized_volatility": 0.358666, "from_high_reference": -0.519872, "from_low_reference": 0.107169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.553666, "fair_value_reference": 49.002724, "structural_low": 33.825001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.02763, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.016674, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.144783, "worst_return": -0.220968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.007824, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005769, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.953016, "worst_return": -0.249724, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013431, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.03089, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.632367, "worst_return": -0.36107, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 48.479583, "relative_strength": -43.97384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.233177, "energy": 94.925326, "activity_lines": [ 35.512, 38.205182, 39.745309, 41.047118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 35.705002, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 101.15, "trend": 43.199167, "fair_value": 48.555096, "relative_strength": -41.178677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.961943, "energy": 87.777384, "activity_lines": [ 35.285667, 37.393546, 39.336619, 40.523462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.869999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 78.95, "trend": 42.6205, "fair_value": 48.636186, "relative_strength": -37.541825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.962629, "energy": 78.915729, "activity_lines": [ 35.809, 36.947455, 39.047571, 40.115129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.43, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 188.95, "trend": 42.0685, "fair_value": 48.721635, "relative_strength": -37.747298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.517973, "energy": 60.123695, "activity_lines": [ 36.044, 36.535273, 38.723762, 39.715742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.919998, "volume": 495, "typical_volume": 213.7, "trend": 41.5935, "fair_value": 48.817949, "relative_strength": -34.115642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.149574, "energy": 41.866638, "activity_lines": [ 36.744333, 36.542454, 38.545833, 39.448097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.145, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 210.75, "trend": 41.154, "fair_value": 48.910064, "relative_strength": -34.414589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.173598, "energy": 32.98556, "activity_lines": [ 37.075999, 36.530363, 38.307809, 39.161097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.450001, "volume": 158, "typical_volume": 218.65, "trend": 40.553666, "fair_value": 49.002724, "relative_strength": -33.628743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.208174, "energy": 29.172737, "activity_lines": [ 37.288, 36.685091, 38.118429, 38.922129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }