{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8123bd7-4e51-44d4-b6e3-ee5c0d9e804a", "symbol": "DQ", "name": "Daqo New Energy Corp ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.921, "architecture_energy": 60.554, "architecture_maturity": 96.315, "architecture_confidence": 95.099, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 29.29, "upward_expansion": 16.2, "deceleration": 57.61, "rotation_down": 51.67, "downward_expansion": 80.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.931333, 12.952, 14.769286, 16.578323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.72, "trend_reference": 19.095, "distance_from_trend": -0.229118, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.609295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.318812, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.959948, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.379949, "excess_performance": -0.505574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.229118, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235088, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.318812, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107774, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.439599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13861, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.379949, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.369178, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7181036, "relative_activity": 1.713668, "balance": 0.369178, "dry_up": 1.072548, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115526, "annualized_volatility": 0.500733, "from_high_reference": -0.597704, "from_low_reference": 0.293441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.095, "fair_value_reference": 21.609295, "structural_low": 11.3805, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.010998, "positive_rate": 0.405405, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.023705, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.611587, "worst_return": -0.249387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.124283, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.149373, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.458364, "worst_return": -0.320208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.214863, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.286312, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.841606, "worst_return": -0.408702, "sufficient": 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"volume": 4166229, "typical_volume": 4072699.3, "trend": 21.406, "fair_value": 22.225833, "relative_strength": -53.492868, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.352512, "energy": 85.689178, "activity_lines": [ 12.906, 14.309273, 16.70519, 18.572817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.14, "volume": 2892286, "typical_volume": 4029456.55, "trend": 20.711667, "fair_value": 22.065, "relative_strength": -53.321676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.390906, "energy": 80.59214, "activity_lines": [ 12.460667, 13.699273, 16.089476, 17.975011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.67, "volume": 3317283, "typical_volume": 3994972.55, "trend": 20.04, "fair_value": 21.894359, "relative_strength": -54.333196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.037267, "energy": 80.364654, "activity_lines": [ 12.096667, 13.122, 15.486048, 17.391677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.17, "volume": 4587220, "typical_volume": 4101023.95, "trend": 19.457, "fair_value": 21.74, "relative_strength": -52.434803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.505003, "energy": 81.063069, "activity_lines": [ 12.066667, 12.754182, 14.98019, 16.883935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.72, "volume": 7181036, "typical_volume": 4190448.0, "trend": 19.095, "fair_value": 21.609295, "relative_strength": -43.959948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.921451, "energy": 60.553914, "activity_lines": [ 12.931333, 12.952, 14.769286, 16.578323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }