{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8150a6d-3203-4f36-a921-a3ebf379f1c0", "symbol": "MAR", "name": "Marriott International Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.994, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.354, "architecture_energy": 10.313, "architecture_maturity": 52.579, "architecture_confidence": 75.572, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.42, "rotation_up": 15.1, "upward_expansion": 45.13, "deceleration": 87.38, "rotation_down": 32.92, "downward_expansion": 25.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 366.183333, 372.191455, 372.345195, 364.711507 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 353.91, "trend_reference": 353.964709, "distance_from_trend": -0.000155, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 267.597975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.70766, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066161, "excess_performance": -0.121292, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000155, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077307, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.322544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037077, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066161, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.668133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13803163, "relative_activity": 1.867161, "balance": 0.668133, "dry_up": 1.171966, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055183, "annualized_volatility": 0.254811, "from_high_reference": -0.138863, "from_low_reference": 0.392024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 353.964709, "fair_value_reference": 267.597975, "structural_low": 310.585812, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.023049, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": 0.002565, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.181918, "worst_return": -0.133641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.080128, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.03109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.241505, "worst_return": -0.166303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.207463, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.06969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.34101, "worst_return": 0.045295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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45.23869, "energy": 32.507157, "activity_lines": [ 379.948, 380.992708, 370.1683, 360.380582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 366.24, "volume": 7543801, "typical_volume": 7251745.15, "trend": 349.040999, "fair_value": 264.346004, "relative_strength": 4.325604, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.052797, "energy": 23.681009, "activity_lines": [ 373.687333, 379.084963, 370.937203, 361.613383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 374.43, "volume": 5425055, "typical_volume": 7064622.35, "trend": 351.043453, "fair_value": 265.502737, "relative_strength": 8.154269, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.947025, "energy": 21.858291, "activity_lines": [ 372.576667, 378.416182, 372.366181, 363.251383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 372.83, "volume": 7883472, "typical_volume": 7117615.1, "trend": 353.064627, "fair_value": 266.628222, "relative_strength": 6.765731, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.639685, "energy": 18.775212, "activity_lines": [ 372.384, 377.057273, 373.398639, 364.656967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 353.91, "volume": 13803163, "typical_volume": 7392595.2, "trend": 353.964709, "fair_value": 267.597975, "relative_strength": -3.70766, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.354434, "energy": 10.313408, "activity_lines": [ 366.183333, 372.191455, 372.345195, 364.711507 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }