{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d81564b2-cc44-4813-8c01-b2b7fa71f029", "symbol": "VNT", "name": "Ventia Services Group Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.303, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.564, "architecture_energy": 23.708, "architecture_maturity": 64.282, "architecture_confidence": 92.532, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.69, "rotation_up": 16.12, "upward_expansion": 51.78, "deceleration": 93.83, "rotation_down": 46.48, "downward_expansion": 24.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.124667, 7.314727, 7.30119, 7.14069 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.24, "trend_reference": 6.95466, "distance_from_trend": 0.041029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.854871, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.491286, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.38803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.165281, "excess_performance": 0.137007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041029, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042811, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.491286, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059844, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05388, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083929, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165281, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.546327, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5209, "relative_activity": 0.539522, "balance": 2.546327, "dry_up": 1.010244, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05153, "annualized_volatility": 0.309415, "from_high_reference": -0.122424, "from_low_reference": 0.365673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.95466, "fair_value_reference": 4.854871, "structural_low": 6.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010101, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.043386, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.113744, "worst_return": -0.233333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.14467, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.101534, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199574, "worst_return": -0.058925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.19261, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.204257, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.321154, "worst_return": 0.033376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.478916, 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"red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041394, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.152754, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044521, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.01, "volume": 3702, "typical_volume": 9507.9, "trend": 6.931967, "fair_value": 4.77134, "relative_strength": 4.125487, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.097722, "energy": 23.73346, "activity_lines": [ 7.345333, 7.525273, 7.275762, 7.100122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.22, "volume": 22595, "typical_volume": 10451.3, "trend": 6.941319, "fair_value": 4.799014, "relative_strength": 6.207143, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.06446, "energy": 33.396986, "activity_lines": [ 7.228, 7.464364, 7.292667, 7.118704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.99, "volume": 7509, "typical_volume": 10597.45, "trend": 6.947912, "fair_value": 4.826113, "relative_strength": 3.047006, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.823454, "energy": 28.501999, "activity_lines": [ 7.092667, 7.363091, 7.286095, 7.121845 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.24, "volume": 5209, "typical_volume": 9654.85, "trend": 6.95466, "fair_value": 4.854871, "relative_strength": 5.38803, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.563505, "energy": 23.708301, "activity_lines": [ 7.124667, 7.314727, 7.30119, 7.14069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }