{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d81b17e9-f86d-4599-8d13-7059b2c8dfbd", "symbol": "MBRX", "name": "Moleculin Biotech Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.991, "architecture_energy": 90.3, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.449, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.83, "rotation_up": 8.08, "upward_expansion": 19.83, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 84.87, "downward_expansion": 95.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.099167, 1.738818, 2.109476, 2.264312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.4095, "trend_reference": 2.61865, "distance_from_trend": -0.843622, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 70.931784, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.994227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -93.769837, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.904988, "excess_performance": -1.092442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.843622, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.374215, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.994227, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021785, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.937698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158873, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.904988, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.035511, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15766095, "relative_activity": 4.356758, "balance": 1.035511, "dry_up": 2.711799, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.57605, "annualized_volatility": 2.514198, "from_high_reference": -0.976432, "from_low_reference": 1.537175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.61865, "fair_value_reference": 70.931784, "structural_low": 0.1614, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 53, "median_return": -0.055814, "positive_rate": 0.396226, "directional_follow_through": 0.566038, "median_excess_return": -0.088663, "regime_survival": 0.90566, "best_return": 0.512821, "worst_return": -0.48046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.238764, "positive_rate": 0.176471, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": -0.329562, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.680264, "worst_return": -0.673725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.444086, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.562427, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.071429, "worst_return": -0.810196, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.415517, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.404301, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.365019, "active": 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2.902, "fair_value": 75.440409, "relative_strength": -71.609969, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.362779, "energy": 24.447504, "activity_lines": [ 2.464, 2.561273, 2.523048, 2.62271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.12, "volume": 258207, "typical_volume": 1770539.3, "trend": 2.845, "fair_value": 73.865056, "relative_strength": -69.66711, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.766702, "energy": 39.91289, "activity_lines": [ 2.292667, 2.483091, 2.491619, 2.572258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4, "volume": 22614599, "typical_volume": 2852549.1, "trend": 2.737667, "fair_value": 72.413534, "relative_strength": -93.972786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.420723, "energy": 82.011754, "activity_lines": [ 1.598667, 2.092, 2.29619, 2.414516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4095, "volume": 15766095, "typical_volume": 3618767.5, "trend": 2.61865, "fair_value": 70.931784, "relative_strength": -93.769837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.991176, "energy": 90.299744, "activity_lines": [ 1.099167, 1.738818, 2.109476, 2.264312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }