{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d81ec401-74c2-4ce7-8310-084df96abdf8", "symbol": "FEZ", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.76, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.328, "architecture_energy": 70.974, "architecture_maturity": 22.717, "architecture_confidence": 81.405, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.22, "rotation_up": 64.03, "upward_expansion": 85.7, "deceleration": 49.19, "rotation_down": 15.9, "downward_expansion": 14.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 69.664667, 68.951934, 67.785941, 66.916049 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 71.86, "trend_reference": 66.293645, "distance_from_trend": 0.083965, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 54.096491, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328367, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.631787, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066172, "excess_performance": -0.059453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083965, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025464, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.328367, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058864, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04834, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066172, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.579298, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3315711, "relative_activity": 0.413272, "balance": 1.579298, "dry_up": 0.444366, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029492, "annualized_volatility": 0.21406, "from_high_reference": -0.00236, "from_low_reference": 0.235813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.293645, "fair_value_reference": 54.096491, "structural_low": 59.516697, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.014266, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.000277, "regime_survival": 0.69697, "best_return": 0.120659, "worst_return": -0.083506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014193, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.028115, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.134124, "worst_return": -0.077225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054375, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.020754, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.286969, "worst_return": -0.043982, "sufficient": true }, { 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53.428936, "relative_strength": -3.68631, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.245832, "energy": 55.282396, "activity_lines": [ 68.230187, 67.582082, 66.398197, 66.052638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 67.72, "volume": 3355430, "typical_volume": 10341054.25, "trend": 65.856609, "fair_value": 53.582062, "relative_strength": -2.626019, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.103383, "energy": 39.322736, "activity_lines": [ 68.070124, 67.718805, 66.616542, 66.180831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.69, "volume": 3488455, "typical_volume": 9461738.8, "trend": 65.958805, "fair_value": 53.733131, "relative_strength": -2.032296, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.517768, "energy": 37.2566, "activity_lines": [ 67.910667, 67.818973, 66.835498, 66.299114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.77, "volume": 4101138, "typical_volume": 8769465.1, "trend": 66.108699, "fair_value": 53.908293, "relative_strength": -0.146099, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.171891, "energy": 43.929337, "activity_lines": [ 68.528, 68.228656, 67.230152, 66.544998 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.86, "volume": 3315711, "typical_volume": 8023076.05, "trend": 66.293645, "fair_value": 54.096491, "relative_strength": -0.631787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.328377, "energy": 70.974352, "activity_lines": [ 69.664667, 68.951934, 67.785941, 66.916049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }