{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8250666-62e8-473a-bbcb-a2aee079b230", "symbol": "OILD", "name": "SavvyShort Geared Crude Oil ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.218, "architecture_energy": 60.092, "architecture_maturity": 48.465, "architecture_confidence": 68.686, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.28, "rotation_up": 15.36, "upward_expansion": 16.65, "deceleration": 66.18, "rotation_down": 64.33, "downward_expansion": 75.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.513333, 2.849091, 2.834619, 3.551613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.65, "trend_reference": 5.48, "distance_from_trend": -0.516423, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.317952, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.80102, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -77.837141, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.794733, "excess_performance": -0.915154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.516423, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.456187, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.80102, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030018, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.778371, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059364, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.794733, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.1174, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 336252, "relative_activity": 0.664505, "balance": 2.1174, "dry_up": 0.54746, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200581, "annualized_volatility": 1.415398, "from_high_reference": -0.859491, "from_low_reference": 0.365979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.48, "fair_value_reference": 13.317952, "structural_low": 1.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007605, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 19.01, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 15.72, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 16.309999, "volume": 100, 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"2026-06-19", "close": 3.23, "volume": 28957, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 3.86, "volume": 52755, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.87, "volume": 11072, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.58, "volume": 79168, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.63, "volume": 168816, "typical_volume": 550817.1, "trend": 6.883, "fair_value": 13.72875, "relative_strength": -79.046498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.986043, "energy": 43.306641, "activity_lines": [ 3.335333, 3.168182, 3.046286, 4.334387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.15, "volume": 274754, "typical_volume": 547384.55, "trend": 6.413, "fair_value": 13.585803, "relative_strength": -82.470094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.904413, "energy": 63.102409, "activity_lines": [ 2.907333, 3.024182, 2.940714, 4.029032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.29, "volume": 328277, "typical_volume": 518256.95, "trend": 5.927, "fair_value": 13.448049, "relative_strength": -80.737945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.373062, "energy": 65.620658, "activity_lines": [ 2.598, 2.904182, 2.865333, 3.763032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.65, "volume": 336252, "typical_volume": 506018.5, "trend": 5.48, "fair_value": 13.317952, "relative_strength": -77.837141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.217763, "energy": 60.091852, "activity_lines": [ 2.513333, 2.849091, 2.834619, 3.551613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }