{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8276329-128f-4928-b731-2124e13390ea", "symbol": "002483", "name": "Jiangsu Rainbow Heavy Industries Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.723, "architecture_energy": 60.597, "architecture_maturity": 97.402, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 29.42, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.88, "rotation_down": 51.17, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.082, 5.096909, 5.41766, 5.828305 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.16, "trend_reference": 6.352144, "distance_from_trend": -0.187676, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.598953, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.862571, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.297959, "excess_performance": -0.305359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.187676, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000513, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297959, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.227, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62265198, "relative_activity": 1.526337, "balance": 0.227, "dry_up": 1.30042, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06481, "annualized_volatility": 0.314002, "from_high_reference": -0.379808, "from_low_reference": 0.068323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.352144, "fair_value_reference": 5.598953, "structural_low": 4.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.049308, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.028804, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.167015, "worst_return": -0.236434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022492, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.010804, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.288945, "worst_return": -0.18007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047621, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.055175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.638191, "worst_return": -0.158382, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 5.0, "volume": 40283480, "typical_volume": 46457621.05, "trend": 6.625811, "fair_value": 5.605945, "relative_strength": -33.203588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.91081, "energy": 90.186055, "activity_lines": [ 5.092667, 5.313365, 5.811647, 6.205159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.0, "volume": 41679374, "typical_volume": 44740446.3, "trend": 6.555144, "fair_value": 5.603228, "relative_strength": -25.990244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.978352, "energy": 82.380024, "activity_lines": [ 5.040667, 5.217187, 5.686008, 6.100268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.89, "volume": 53910381, "typical_volume": 43472291.3, "trend": 6.482144, "fair_value": 5.600225, "relative_strength": -27.31586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.057147, "energy": 68.806033, "activity_lines": [ 4.980667, 5.124522, 5.56394, 5.99284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.19, "volume": 54341749, "typical_volume": 42455999.25, "trend": 6.418144, "fair_value": 5.599625, "relative_strength": -21.12972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.653698, "energy": 64.547731, "activity_lines": [ 5.044, 5.107133, 5.485776, 5.909476 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.16, "volume": 62265198, "typical_volume": 40793870.85, "trend": 6.352144, "fair_value": 5.598953, "relative_strength": -24.862571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.722597, "energy": 60.597412, "activity_lines": [ 5.082, 5.096909, 5.41766, 5.828305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }