{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d833c25a-544a-4b11-a28e-9955b6ddb684", "symbol": "VSO", "name": "Vanguard MSCI Australian Small Companies Index ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.895, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.655, "architecture_energy": 7.588, "architecture_maturity": 16.129, "architecture_confidence": 60.677, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.51, "rotation_up": 21.07, "upward_expansion": 8.97, "deceleration": 57.71, "rotation_down": 34.52, "downward_expansion": 65.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.197999, 72.072194, 72.121578, 72.322335 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 75.309998, "trend_reference": 73.225615, "distance_from_trend": 0.028465, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 64.844803, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161388, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.531831, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024486, "excess_performance": -0.039219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028465, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016826, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025589, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022423, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024486, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.827438, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 297044, "relative_activity": 2.642396, "balance": 0.827438, "dry_up": 2.345424, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028543, "annualized_volatility": 0.182888, "from_high_reference": -0.075384, "from_low_reference": 0.129085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 73.225615, "fair_value_reference": 64.844803, 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64.53076, "relative_strength": -5.264219, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.670102, "energy": 46.407451, "activity_lines": [ 71.579738, 71.948111, 72.049508, 72.603038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.900002, "volume": 323875, "typical_volume": 97762.95, "trend": 73.535615, "fair_value": 64.619536, "relative_strength": -5.423191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.16547, "energy": 57.617406, "activity_lines": [ 70.858208, 71.571237, 71.848706, 72.351855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.099998, "volume": 262824, "typical_volume": 102460.05, "trend": 73.331948, "fair_value": 64.719642, "relative_strength": -5.996523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.847381, "energy": 55.870788, "activity_lines": [ 70.802667, 71.438505, 71.784618, 72.194719 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.309998, "volume": 297044, "typical_volume": 112414.65, "trend": 73.225615, "fair_value": 64.844803, "relative_strength": -3.531831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.654762, "energy": 7.588277, "activity_lines": [ 72.197999, 72.072194, 72.121578, 72.322335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }