{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8363a5c-615d-4e60-8db9-41e682f359fb", "symbol": "2601", "name": "First Steamship Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.257, "architecture_energy": 19.127, "architecture_maturity": 48.393, "architecture_confidence": 72.639, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.06, "rotation_up": 31.37, "upward_expansion": 61.11, "deceleration": 87.61, "rotation_down": 23.85, "downward_expansion": 13.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.298667, 6.392727, 6.060905, 5.947183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.2, "trend_reference": 5.816667, "distance_from_trend": 0.065903, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.036026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.118821, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.019886, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.152416, "excess_performance": -0.288956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065903, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043411, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.118821, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.227723, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240199, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215773, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152416, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.884496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7938478, "relative_activity": 0.599855, "balance": 0.884496, "dry_up": 0.879748, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133251, "annualized_volatility": 0.700732, "from_high_reference": -0.242054, "from_low_reference": 0.319149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.816667, "fair_value_reference": 7.036026, "structural_low": 4.7, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.216792, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.176026, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.010799, "worst_return": -0.227053, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.189259, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.217536, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.016199, "worst_return": -0.362319, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.239146, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.30084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.050756, "worst_return": -0.427536, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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5.782905, 5.735226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.7, "volume": 51337068, "typical_volume": 16892692.75, "trend": 5.704667, "fair_value": 7.096154, "relative_strength": -15.83042, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.56249, "energy": 67.945587, "activity_lines": [ 6.662, 6.238, 5.872381, 5.801742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.65, "volume": 15194839, "typical_volume": 14200472.2, "trend": 5.742, "fair_value": 7.083397, "relative_strength": -17.490314, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.912835, "energy": 70.345576, "activity_lines": [ 6.756, 6.378364, 5.950905, 5.862731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.16, "volume": 12744064, "typical_volume": 13422123.5, "trend": 5.765, "fair_value": 7.067564, "relative_strength": -21.685051, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.811671, "energy": 63.24725, "activity_lines": [ 6.630667, 6.395091, 5.983429, 5.889699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.25, "volume": 10692892, "typical_volume": 13278644.05, "trend": 5.794, "fair_value": 7.051731, "relative_strength": -21.647651, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.315518, "energy": 31.474579, "activity_lines": [ 6.481333, 6.407636, 6.02481, 5.920989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6.2, "volume": 7938478, "typical_volume": 13233985.6, "trend": 5.816667, "fair_value": 7.036026, "relative_strength": -24.019886, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.257173, "energy": 19.127297, "activity_lines": [ 6.298667, 6.392727, 6.060905, 5.947183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }