{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d838c02f-f374-4f43-8480-a111d517ec79", "symbol": "AEFES", "name": "Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi", "exchange": "IST", "country": "TR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "XU100.IS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.9, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.68, "architecture_energy": 43.588, "architecture_maturity": 5.28, "architecture_confidence": 74.573, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.38, "rotation_up": 16.88, "upward_expansion": 23.79, "deceleration": 51.65, "rotation_down": 66.67, "downward_expansion": 48.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.036, 19.668182, 20.054497, 19.845482 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.74, "trend_reference": 19.429071, "distance_from_trend": 0.016003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.312889, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140191, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.345663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.151224, "excess_performance": 0.046251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016003, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140191, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062814, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151224, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578381, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 233688491, "relative_activity": 1.797342, "balance": 0.578381, "dry_up": 1.867074, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055763, "annualized_volatility": 0.306301, "from_high_reference": -0.144989, "from_low_reference": 0.488755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.429071, "fair_value_reference": 17.312889, "structural_low": 16.016401, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.042298, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.047648, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.228708, "worst_return": -0.002085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.17719, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.044294, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.225706, "worst_return": -0.085461, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.064578, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.489565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.114655, "worst_return": -0.159458, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045391, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044139, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050597, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046232, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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19.568503, "fair_value": 17.152172, "relative_strength": -4.549934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.551069, "energy": 11.541891, "activity_lines": [ 20.198666, 20.523818, 20.401859, 19.975202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 18.41, "volume": 283002886, "typical_volume": 133131158.2, "trend": 19.547134, "fair_value": 17.203249, "relative_strength": -9.170324, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.192699, "energy": 33.306074, "activity_lines": [ 19.469333, 20.106909, 20.238977, 19.90046 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 18.450001, "volume": 223346035, "typical_volume": 129024731.0, "trend": 19.495032, "fair_value": 17.250819, "relative_strength": -4.805554, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.092681, "energy": 43.300035, "activity_lines": [ 18.923334, 19.744727, 20.083381, 19.829677 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 19.74, "volume": 233688491, "typical_volume": 130018920.25, "trend": 19.429071, "fair_value": 17.312889, "relative_strength": -1.345663, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.680207, "energy": 43.587557, "activity_lines": [ 19.036, 19.668182, 20.054497, 19.845482 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }