{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d83c834b-1e1a-4e5b-9a2f-d9fc681d4849", "symbol": "002928", "name": "China Express Airlines Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.031, "architecture_energy": 59.213, "architecture_maturity": 55.331, "architecture_confidence": 89.449, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 20.16, "upward_expansion": 9.94, "deceleration": 48.76, "rotation_down": 62.03, "downward_expansion": 83.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.395333, 6.592909, 7.035286, 7.555548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.53, "trend_reference": 8.413, "distance_from_trend": -0.22382, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.823654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165352, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.566181, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.378687, "excess_performance": -0.386087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.22382, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139364, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165352, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212491, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.315662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035925, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378687, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.918701, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121497073, "relative_activity": 0.887821, "balance": 0.918701, "dry_up": 1.077836, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099069, "annualized_volatility": 0.475575, "from_high_reference": -0.476763, "from_low_reference": 0.103041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.413, "fair_value_reference": 7.823654, "structural_low": 5.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.026946, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.020726, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.314815, "worst_return": -0.153409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.041118, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004878, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.297989, "worst_return": -0.244444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.1059, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.038366, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.291627, "worst_return": -0.325648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136842, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148344, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.28117, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034091, "active": false }, { "regime": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.315496, "energy": 62.316741, "activity_lines": [ 6.958667, 7.158, 7.585286, 8.195441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.01, "volume": 147912909, "typical_volume": 137556299.0, "trend": 8.886, "fair_value": 7.862372, "relative_strength": -35.993303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.341979, "energy": 67.972638, "activity_lines": [ 6.614667, 6.911273, 7.389048, 8.001161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.08, "volume": 148649123, "typical_volume": 138056635.6, "trend": 8.707333, "fair_value": 7.845833, "relative_strength": -34.940172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.632113, "energy": 83.570508, "activity_lines": [ 6.36, 6.720545, 7.223143, 7.820129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.64, "volume": 171942362, "typical_volume": 137437712.1, "trend": 8.563667, "fair_value": 7.834744, "relative_strength": -27.314975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.913119, "energy": 73.450735, "activity_lines": [ 6.362667, 6.661818, 7.128095, 7.686753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.53, "volume": 121497073, "typical_volume": 136848578.4, "trend": 8.413, "fair_value": 7.823654, "relative_strength": -31.566181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.030532, "energy": 59.213185, "activity_lines": [ 6.395333, 6.592909, 7.035286, 7.555548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }