{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d83e10bc-6171-48dd-b6b6-a426370dc152", "symbol": "600810", "name": "Shenma Industry Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.274, "architecture_energy": 38.957, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.882, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.32, "rotation_up": 28.51, "upward_expansion": 10.81, "deceleration": 59.81, "rotation_down": 37.4, "downward_expansion": 70.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.282667, 6.290909, 6.563095, 6.975656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.38, "trend_reference": 7.549, "distance_from_trend": -0.154855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.710019, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.172505, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.283125, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.29813, "excess_performance": -0.254926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109298, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.172505, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151608, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242831, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001771, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.29813, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.812687, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52248335, "relative_activity": 0.67262, "balance": 0.812687, "dry_up": 0.874068, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093923, "annualized_volatility": 0.403399, "from_high_reference": -0.47576, "from_low_reference": 0.137255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.549, "fair_value_reference": 7.710019, "structural_low": 5.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.017225, "positive_rate": 0.586207, "directional_follow_through": 0.413793, "median_excess_return": 0.026105, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.233202, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.018916, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.044202, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.17302, "worst_return": -0.278935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031473, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055804, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.25945, "worst_return": -0.325027, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -58.939479, "energy": 50.146393, "activity_lines": [ 6.212667, 6.285455, 6.810762, 7.245806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.22, "volume": 78453196, "typical_volume": 88691001.75, "trend": 7.713667, "fair_value": 7.716857, "relative_strength": -24.982062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.59996, "energy": 49.225498, "activity_lines": [ 6.170667, 6.256182, 6.70819, 7.144667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.35, "volume": 53673530, "typical_volume": 81744546.3, "trend": 7.636, "fair_value": 7.713498, "relative_strength": -23.155563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.083335, "energy": 48.108229, "activity_lines": [ 6.214667, 6.266909, 6.628524, 7.056688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.38, "volume": 52248335, "typical_volume": 77678819.95, "trend": 7.549, "fair_value": 7.710019, "relative_strength": -24.283125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.273858, "energy": 38.956632, "activity_lines": [ 6.282667, 6.290909, 6.563095, 6.975656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }