{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d847b356-1a92-47ff-a1c4-58ee4d8f3a59", "symbol": "ALTRA", "name": "TRACTIAL", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.855, "architecture_energy": 42.255, "architecture_maturity": 51.951, "architecture_confidence": 88.459, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.72, "rotation_up": 25.03, "upward_expansion": 5.91, "deceleration": 55.66, "rotation_down": 46.5, "downward_expansion": 76.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.988933, 2.010982, 2.190257, 2.368302 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.942, "trend_reference": 2.588417, "distance_from_trend": -0.249734, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.534529, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265535, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.903028, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.306429, "excess_performance": -0.35974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.249734, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064484, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.265535, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.700623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292206, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.306429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.08361, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16110, "relative_activity": 0.340388, "balance": 1.08361, "dry_up": 0.639125, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180266, "annualized_volatility": 0.526682, "from_high_reference": -0.520494, "from_low_reference": 0.261039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.588417, "fair_value_reference": 1.534529, "structural_low": 1.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.058642, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.047726, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 1.095745, "worst_return": -0.34741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.056256, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083415, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.62766, "worst_return": -0.372951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.111508, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.273388, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.577128, "worst_return": -0.44877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.017379, "energy": 48.837494, "activity_lines": [ 2.056, 2.124182, 2.386198, 2.546577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.13, "volume": 68658, "typical_volume": 56717.65, "trend": 2.709, "fair_value": 1.520859, "relative_strength": -18.019562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.465908, "energy": 42.625579, "activity_lines": [ 2.087333, 2.104182, 2.343281, 2.508233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.998, "volume": 19932, "typical_volume": 54200.2, "trend": 2.692917, "fair_value": 1.525526, "relative_strength": -22.970352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.272622, "energy": 39.937147, "activity_lines": [ 2.068667, 2.073818, 2.291886, 2.462362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.92, "volume": 16295, "typical_volume": 53130.9, "trend": 2.627017, "fair_value": 1.529901, "relative_strength": -26.600356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.026545, "energy": 39.922001, "activity_lines": [ 2.024133, 2.035673, 2.237833, 2.412497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.942, "volume": 16110, "typical_volume": 47328.35, "trend": 2.588417, "fair_value": 1.534529, "relative_strength": -26.903028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.855408, "energy": 42.254664, "activity_lines": [ 1.988933, 2.010982, 2.190257, 2.368302 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }