{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d848e6d6-2726-4388-a3d5-8a2214a33ec3", "symbol": "OSWALGREEN", "name": "Oswal Greentech Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.911, "architecture_energy": 58.14, "architecture_maturity": 93.774, "architecture_confidence": 84.765, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.56, "rotation_up": 17.19, "upward_expansion": 10.14, "deceleration": 45.52, "rotation_down": 65.97, "downward_expansion": 85.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.479334, 21.946, 23.246333, 24.007871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.040001, "trend_reference": 25.107333, "distance_from_trend": -0.122169, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.918205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.386384, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.227787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.230715, "excess_performance": -0.187006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122169, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133632, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.386384, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156716, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.262278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067059, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.230715, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.476228, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 827177, "relative_activity": 0.835964, "balance": 1.476228, "dry_up": 1.497291, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07968, "annualized_volatility": 0.424679, "from_high_reference": -0.496689, "from_low_reference": 0.115385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.107333, "fair_value_reference": 35.918205, "structural_low": 19.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.031928, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.037742, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.426667, "worst_return": -0.193241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.069821, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.040976, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.214286, "worst_return": -0.310445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.025458, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000492, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.367347, "worst_return": -0.262299, "sufficient": 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24.489, 25.211419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.620001, "volume": 432426, "typical_volume": 909258.6, "trend": 26.227333, "fair_value": 35.967308, "relative_strength": -29.820853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.48081, "energy": 77.509988, "activity_lines": [ 22.345333, 22.898727, 24.169524, 24.889484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.709999, "volume": 457920, "typical_volume": 870592.6, "trend": 25.824667, "fair_value": 35.949423, "relative_strength": -30.205952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.44733, "energy": 81.422153, "activity_lines": [ 21.699333, 22.402363, 23.790048, 24.533527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.040001, "volume": 4208692, "typical_volume": 1034168.8, "trend": 25.403, "fair_value": 35.936218, "relative_strength": -29.988541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.321195, "energy": 75.661198, "activity_lines": [ 21.370667, 22.044364, 23.463333, 24.224839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.040001, "volume": 827177, "typical_volume": 989489.3, "trend": 25.107333, "fair_value": 35.918205, "relative_strength": -26.227787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.911327, "energy": 58.14, "activity_lines": [ 21.479334, 21.946, 23.246333, 24.007871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }