{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d8491356-ece1-495a-a254-e514fd371796", "symbol": "WTID", "name": "BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X INVERSE LEVERAGED", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.03, "architecture_energy": 72.591, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.36, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.4, "rotation_up": 11.26, "upward_expansion": 18.32, "deceleration": 34.44, "rotation_down": 73.88, "downward_expansion": 89.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.965733, 4.452109, 4.687079, 4.885732 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.08, "trend_reference": 5.48571, "distance_from_trend": -0.256249, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.961933, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.727308, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.616873, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.421112, "excess_performance": -0.546737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.256249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282557, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.727308, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.566169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00637, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.421112, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.514435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 366359, "relative_activity": 0.438593, "balance": 1.514435, "dry_up": 0.313704, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186478, "annualized_volatility": 0.830519, "from_high_reference": -0.730144, "from_low_reference": 0.159091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.48571, "fair_value_reference": 14.961933, "structural_low": 3.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.06476, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.112445, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.27193, "worst_return": -0.298418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.059642, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.182723, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.04046, "worst_return": -0.541727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.188766, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.337286, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.064774, "worst_return": -0.56906, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-46.57974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.953469, "energy": 23.404547, "activity_lines": [ 5.077333, 4.965276, 5.00496, 5.721679 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 5.64, "volume": 467789, "typical_volume": 850276.4, "trend": 6.84554, "fair_value": 15.789651, "relative_strength": -45.028918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.333115, "energy": 13.467003, "activity_lines": [ 5.315333, 5.080365, 5.040909, 5.632634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.64, "volume": 336565, "typical_volume": 866291.4, "trend": 6.68379, "fair_value": 15.62981, "relative_strength": -45.094656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.748946, "energy": 14.122415, "activity_lines": [ 5.474667, 5.198364, 5.083562, 5.554857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.05, "volume": 215393, "typical_volume": 876234.1, "trend": 6.486257, "fair_value": 15.470687, "relative_strength": -50.547224, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.291363, "energy": 15.515881, "activity_lines": [ 5.396, 5.200909, 5.075546, 5.449451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.15, "volume": 200595, "typical_volume": 885449.75, "trend": 6.216773, "fair_value": 15.330012, "relative_strength": -57.705431, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.011929, "energy": 25.419689, "activity_lines": [ 4.992667, 5.032, 4.988718, 5.298725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.752, "volume": 253204, "typical_volume": 885520.1, "trend": 5.941503, "fair_value": 15.198553, "relative_strength": -60.557805, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.035237, "energy": 51.326944, "activity_lines": [ 4.495333, 4.813636, 4.873813, 5.139707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.62, "volume": 227997, "typical_volume": 839851.7, "trend": 5.695117, "fair_value": 15.070835, "relative_strength": -61.264606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.63443, "energy": 72.520069, "activity_lines": [ 4.086533, 4.583418, 4.755184, 4.989933 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.08, "volume": 366359, "typical_volume": 835304.6, "trend": 5.48571, "fair_value": 14.961933, "relative_strength": -56.616873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.029638, "energy": 72.59083, "activity_lines": [ 3.965733, 4.452109, 4.687079, 4.885732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }