{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d84b1b47-7281-4c85-b4ce-5b43e224dc3e", "symbol": "MSGE", "name": "Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.987, "architecture_energy": 44.562, "architecture_maturity": 73.089, "architecture_confidence": 74.526, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.06, "rotation_up": 47.06, "upward_expansion": 75.73, "deceleration": 66.79, "rotation_down": 27.66, "downward_expansion": 11.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.354, 76.283818, 73.506, 70.394258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 76.55, "trend_reference": 66.835667, "distance_from_trend": 0.145347, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.349679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.765872, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.023801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.258012, "excess_performance": 0.132387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.145347, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139186, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.765872, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13764, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.180238, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004532, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.258012, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.318328, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1708977, "relative_activity": 0.838089, "balance": 2.318328, "dry_up": 0.854364, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061577, "annualized_volatility": 0.268491, "from_high_reference": -0.075371, "from_low_reference": 1.167941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.835667, "fair_value_reference": 43.349679, "structural_low": 54.3, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.022656, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.029287, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.138572, "worst_return": -0.140081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.118272, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.110187, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.201702, "worst_return": -0.13937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.33358, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.204566, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.486762, "worst_return": -0.225883, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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67.466581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.25, "volume": 1858703, "typical_volume": 2063504.7, "trend": 64.612, "fair_value": 42.525641, "relative_strength": 24.175723, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.889905, "energy": 54.151765, "activity_lines": [ 76.160667, 75.007818, 71.037381, 68.20157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.26, "volume": 1960118, "typical_volume": 2048159.75, "trend": 65.353667, "fair_value": 42.7875, "relative_strength": 25.400047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.860137, "energy": 47.608558, "activity_lines": [ 76.14, 75.497273, 71.90881, 68.953054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.26, "volume": 1440857, "typical_volume": 2053018.35, "trend": 66.117667, "fair_value": 43.069551, "relative_strength": 24.403886, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.123229, "energy": 44.288202, "activity_lines": [ 76.264, 76.024364, 72.792524, 69.721204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.55, "volume": 1708977, "typical_volume": 2039135.2, "trend": 66.835667, "fair_value": 43.349679, "relative_strength": 18.023801, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.986834, "energy": 44.562293, "activity_lines": [ 76.354, 76.283818, 73.506, 70.394258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }