{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d84e9771-e7ab-49b8-982e-6267a40167a7", "symbol": "EVN", "name": "Evolution Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.82, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.562, "architecture_energy": 24.084, "architecture_maturity": 28.391, "architecture_confidence": 80.231, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.46, "rotation_up": 23.45, "upward_expansion": 5.03, "deceleration": 49.74, "rotation_down": 44.3, "downward_expansion": 76.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.909333, 11.911091, 12.092667, 12.45638 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.4, "trend_reference": 13.006724, "distance_from_trend": 0.030236, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.178973, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.866562, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.690626, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054853, "excess_performance": -0.118559, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030236, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000672, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.866562, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155171, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056906, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131746, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054853, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.514884, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37755963, "relative_activity": 1.204463, "balance": 0.514884, "dry_up": 1.168507, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082692, "annualized_volatility": 0.492578, "from_high_reference": -0.236428, "from_low_reference": 0.830667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.006724, "fair_value_reference": 7.178973, "structural_low": 10.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.013441, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.000987, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.30622, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.158076, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.154845, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.302631, "worst_return": -0.34022, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.177295, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.222966, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240351, "worst_return": -0.14055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"activity_lines": [ 11.642, 11.860182, 12.21419, 12.657813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.29, "volume": 40289727, "typical_volume": 35683531.85, "trend": 13.02477, "fair_value": 7.065576, "relative_strength": -4.541394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.598109, "energy": 55.876196, "activity_lines": [ 11.422, 11.730364, 12.092667, 12.542659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.27, "volume": 33085084, "typical_volume": 34977627.75, "trend": 12.982554, "fair_value": 7.115568, "relative_strength": -7.491135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.254824, "energy": 64.102383, "activity_lines": [ 11.278667, 11.618909, 11.985905, 12.429448 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.4, "volume": 37755963, "typical_volume": 31346724.5, "trend": 13.006724, "fair_value": 7.178973, "relative_strength": 5.690626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.56177, "energy": 24.08354, "activity_lines": [ 11.909333, 11.911091, 12.092667, 12.45638 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }