{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d84ea531-72b8-4ab9-9b7b-1a936423538c", "symbol": "BALKRISHNA", "name": "Balkrishna Paper Mills Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.73, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.741, "architecture_energy": 14.179, "architecture_maturity": 39.356, "architecture_confidence": 64.182, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.31, "rotation_up": 21.31, "upward_expansion": 47.06, "deceleration": 80.84, "rotation_down": 35.26, "downward_expansion": 27.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.55, 17.826728, 17.972286, 17.615893 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.66, "trend_reference": 17.253334, "distance_from_trend": 0.02357, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.804586, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.190079, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.504205, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.059388, "excess_performance": 0.103097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02357, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043253, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.190079, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059868, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060942, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059388, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.352823, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54941, "relative_activity": 0.563331, "balance": 0.352823, "dry_up": 0.678868, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075616, "annualized_volatility": 0.375685, "from_high_reference": -0.319985, "from_low_reference": 0.471667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.253334, "fair_value_reference": 21.804586, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.035402, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.021339, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.44664, "worst_return": -0.104702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.129863, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.10995, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.374702, "worst_return": -0.325354, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.040859, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07989, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.386635, "worst_return": -0.324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.780521, "energy": 20.411219, "activity_lines": [ 18.176001, 18.222182, 17.969477, 17.585699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.540001, "volume": 53319, "typical_volume": 155314.9, "trend": 17.295334, "fair_value": 21.809914, "relative_strength": -4.542826, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.133642, "energy": 14.290503, "activity_lines": [ 17.942667, 18.08691, 17.98681, 17.598904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.15, "volume": 128739, "typical_volume": 100408.3, "trend": 17.251334, "fair_value": 21.807277, "relative_strength": -8.722277, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.5661, "energy": 10.402023, "activity_lines": [ 17.618, 17.896364, 17.96, 17.589527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.66, "volume": 54941, "typical_volume": 97528.85, "trend": 17.253334, "fair_value": 21.804586, "relative_strength": -6.504205, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.740904, "energy": 14.178586, "activity_lines": [ 17.55, 17.826728, 17.972286, 17.615893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }