{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d84f02fb-921f-44a5-b8e7-e3987bddb771", "symbol": "4745", "name": "Cowealth Medical Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.8, "architecture_energy": 76.72, "architecture_maturity": 48.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.406, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 16.71, "upward_expansion": 16.44, "deceleration": 42.44, "rotation_down": 72.07, "downward_expansion": 92.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.183333, 12.908182, 14.391429, 15.724516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.0, "trend_reference": 17.536667, "distance_from_trend": -0.315719, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.751533, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.421729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.477144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.452055, "excess_performance": -0.893427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.315719, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157026, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.421729, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.544771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20762, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.452055, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.093577, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123930, "relative_activity": 0.091964, "balance": 0.093577, "dry_up": 0.488376, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115705, "annualized_volatility": 0.462803, "from_high_reference": -0.562044, "from_low_reference": 0.153846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.536667, "fair_value_reference": 20.751533, "structural_low": 10.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.016493, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.017979, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.095694, "worst_return": -0.192513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.023474, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.072681, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.520958, "worst_return": -0.358289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024224, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.090624, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.537356, "worst_return": -0.153285, "sufficient": true 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-44.676633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.513041, "energy": 64.705225, "activity_lines": [ 14.18, 14.609091, 16.161905, 17.387097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.45, "volume": 707088, "typical_volume": 1350887.55, "trend": 18.823333, "fair_value": 21.024323, "relative_strength": -48.655039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.420467, "energy": 66.172019, "activity_lines": [ 13.93, 14.282727, 15.790476, 17.012043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.9, "volume": 1483408, "typical_volume": 1397055.45, "trend": 18.336667, "fair_value": 20.926585, "relative_strength": -57.255018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.383427, "energy": 73.925206, "activity_lines": [ 12.903333, 13.588182, 15.21, 16.50086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.2, "volume": 318100, "typical_volume": 1362864.05, "trend": 17.896667, "fair_value": 20.840645, "relative_strength": -52.711503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.631096, "energy": 66.835357, "activity_lines": [ 12.496667, 13.232727, 14.793571, 16.104946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.0, "volume": 123930, "typical_volume": 1347592.5, "trend": 17.536667, "fair_value": 20.751533, "relative_strength": -54.477144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.800265, "energy": 76.719927, "activity_lines": [ 12.183333, 12.908182, 14.391429, 15.724516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }