{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d85468fc-8470-4bce-94e4-a265cd72578c", "symbol": "600550", "name": "Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.104, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.276, "architecture_energy": 47.766, "architecture_maturity": 50.816, "architecture_confidence": 79.426, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.8, "rotation_up": 26.23, "upward_expansion": 7.81, "deceleration": 60.05, "rotation_down": 47.2, "downward_expansion": 78.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.436667, 11.454545, 12.396429, 13.232559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.81, "trend_reference": 14.021, "distance_from_trend": -0.157692, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.277756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.426715, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.542983, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165371, "excess_performance": -0.122167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157692, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03583, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.426715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.578661, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291007, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165371, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.497198, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 300365779, "relative_activity": 1.314189, "balance": 0.497198, "dry_up": 1.166284, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106233, "annualized_volatility": 0.468376, "from_high_reference": -0.396834, "from_low_reference": 0.47995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.021, "fair_value_reference": 8.277756, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.033535, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.01346, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.193548, "worst_return": -0.077381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.03373, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.052243, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.208602, "worst_return": -0.080508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044984, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.011985, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.960829, "worst_return": -0.080508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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133889269, "typical_volume": 285025816.5, "trend": 13.928333, "fair_value": 8.151538, "relative_strength": -10.882804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.249321, "energy": 92.6192, "activity_lines": [ 10.929333, 11.674182, 12.992095, 13.672989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.35, "volume": 309739159, "typical_volume": 252483937.7, "trend": 13.969333, "fair_value": 8.191667, "relative_strength": -0.501883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.468919, "energy": 79.248895, "activity_lines": [ 10.944, 11.481636, 12.730095, 13.506645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.89, "volume": 322251070, "typical_volume": 236454793.95, "trend": 13.979, "fair_value": 8.234744, "relative_strength": 3.330239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.463553, "energy": 56.585197, "activity_lines": [ 11.213333, 11.454909, 12.554571, 13.372495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.81, "volume": 300365779, "typical_volume": 228556050.15, "trend": 14.021, "fair_value": 8.277756, "relative_strength": -0.542983, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.275745, "energy": 47.765501, "activity_lines": [ 11.436667, 11.454545, 12.396429, 13.232559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }