{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d85ca1fd-e63e-4c3b-bf59-31c3d1b549a6", "symbol": "CLOV", "name": "Clover Health Investments Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.506, "architecture_energy": 32.717, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.974, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.25, "rotation_up": 32.23, "upward_expansion": 65.45, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 27.66, "downward_expansion": 17.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.474667, 4.634545, 4.237143, 3.733828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.76, "trend_reference": 3.163, "distance_from_trend": 0.5049, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.484847, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.915611, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 41.722512, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.234742, "excess_performance": 1.047288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.5049, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.288566, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.915611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.499012, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.417225, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.430741, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.234742, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.612196, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31506894, "relative_activity": 0.970531, "balance": 2.612196, "dry_up": 0.719381, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141705, "annualized_volatility": 0.625934, "from_high_reference": -0.148479, "from_low_reference": 2.012658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.163, "fair_value_reference": 2.484847, "structural_low": 1.58, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004161, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.057318, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.263158, "worst_return": -0.12963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.134855, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.254023, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.305638, "worst_return": -0.211749, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.153434, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.284361, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.053412, "worst_return": -0.253455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040984, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115493, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001637, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.301047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008097, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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3.355075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.62, "volume": 25108061, "typical_volume": 33526098.4, "trend": 2.972, "fair_value": 2.425231, "relative_strength": 45.893125, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.996061, "energy": 63.293788, "activity_lines": [ 4.830667, 4.683455, 3.950762, 3.465785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.32, "volume": 18353202, "typical_volume": 32982480.65, "trend": 3.032333, "fair_value": 2.44568, "relative_strength": 38.087306, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.407946, "energy": 46.34722, "activity_lines": [ 4.622, 4.663636, 4.047857, 3.552753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.17, "volume": 18446520, "typical_volume": 32774818.5, "trend": 3.091, "fair_value": 2.463949, "relative_strength": 31.995918, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.871159, "energy": 31.130075, "activity_lines": [ 4.408667, 4.601091, 4.119619, 3.626151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.76, "volume": 31506894, "typical_volume": 32463549.0, "trend": 3.163, "fair_value": 2.484847, "relative_strength": 41.722512, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.505912, "energy": 32.716917, "activity_lines": [ 4.474667, 4.634545, 4.237143, 3.733828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }