{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d85e9e45-8669-4fb8-b6c0-a677877009e1", "symbol": "3020", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI USA Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.026, "architecture_energy": 69.785, "architecture_maturity": 49.613, "architecture_confidence": 88.407, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.17, "rotation_up": 63.19, "upward_expansion": 87.24, "deceleration": 54.1, "rotation_down": 26.97, "downward_expansion": 11.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 1779.3, 1768.063636, 1749.211905, 1714.252688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1819.0, "trend_reference": 1673.633333, "distance_from_trend": 0.086857, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1357.370638, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340091, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.734543, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.146188, "excess_performance": 0.179769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086857, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340091, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005998, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.137345, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146188, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.315294, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105, "relative_activity": 0.172626, "balance": 0.315294, "dry_up": 1.177559, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016852, "annualized_volatility": 0.133459, "from_high_reference": -0.001372, "from_low_reference": 7.968561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1673.633333, "fair_value_reference": 1357.370638, "structural_low": 1494.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.012288, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": 0.020773, "regime_survival": 0.72973, "best_return": 0.062556, "worst_return": -0.084112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.037256, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.050887, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.092635, "worst_return": -0.087814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.085146, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.046276, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.14729, "worst_return": -0.180809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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1695.804762, 1668.422581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1766.0, "volume": 105, "typical_volume": 580.5, "trend": 1644.35, "fair_value": 1333.380254, "relative_strength": 23.500332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.331882, "energy": 53.074066, "activity_lines": [ 1749.6, 1750.290909, 1706.159524, 1676.63871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1767.0, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 584.25, "trend": 1649.95, "fair_value": 1338.146279, "relative_strength": 18.8767, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.161022, "energy": 61.753558, "activity_lines": [ 1754.833333, 1754.736364, 1715.792857, 1684.551613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1763.0, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 555.0, "trend": 1656.366667, "fair_value": 1342.838587, "relative_strength": 16.292977, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.196481, "energy": 59.793168, "activity_lines": [ 1759.166667, 1756.7, 1724.266667, 1691.845161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1750.5, "volume": 1410, "typical_volume": 600.75, "trend": 1661.483333, "fair_value": 1347.453972, "relative_strength": 13.208908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.634791, "energy": 61.978517, "activity_lines": [ 1757.2, 1755.709091, 1730.833333, 1697.91828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1762.5, "volume": 1260, "typical_volume": 629.25, "trend": 1666.833333, "fair_value": 1352.210382, "relative_strength": 9.660586, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.089105, "energy": 55.599573, "activity_lines": [ 1760.233333, 1756.872727, 1737.811905, 1704.435484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1819.0, "volume": 105, "typical_volume": 608.25, "trend": 1673.633333, "fair_value": 1357.370638, "relative_strength": 13.734543, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.025517, "energy": 69.785123, "activity_lines": [ 1779.3, 1768.063636, 1749.211905, 1714.252688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }