{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d869cd45-8c66-4775-b7d1-6bc499267bf8", "symbol": "FANCY", "name": "Fancy Wood Industries Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.644, "architecture_energy": 64.093, "architecture_maturity": 22.246, "architecture_confidence": 89.299, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.56, "rotation_up": 9.9, "upward_expansion": 13.99, "deceleration": 37.27, "rotation_down": 71.04, "downward_expansion": 89.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.228667, 0.254727, 0.268429, 0.276559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.22, "trend_reference": 0.285, "distance_from_trend": -0.22807, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.369423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.404477, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.358017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.185185, "excess_performance": -0.37751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.22807, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029512, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.404477, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078505, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.38358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096957, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185185, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.190039, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1230800, "relative_activity": 1.344123, "balance": 0.190039, "dry_up": 0.850916, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.258741, "annualized_volatility": 0.855039, "from_high_reference": -0.488372, "from_low_reference": 0.375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.285, "fair_value_reference": 0.369423, "structural_low": 0.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.013905, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.394737, "median_excess_return": 0.007205, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.28125, "worst_return": -0.232877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061103, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.350877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.069712, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.142595, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.135135, "worst_return": -0.439394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"relative_strength": -20.908815, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.538427, "energy": 20.586472, "activity_lines": [ 0.312, 0.295273, 0.294381, 0.29514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.25, "volume": 1573800, "typical_volume": 880710.0, "trend": 0.296, "fair_value": 0.378654, "relative_strength": -33.700621, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.528294, "energy": 16.796224, "activity_lines": [ 0.292, 0.288909, 0.290048, 0.292043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.26, "volume": 308800, "typical_volume": 866840.0, "trend": 0.294333, "fair_value": 0.376346, "relative_strength": -31.082491, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.659225, "energy": 22.128428, "activity_lines": [ 0.278, 0.285455, 0.286905, 0.28972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.24, "volume": 912000, "typical_volume": 848100.0, "trend": 0.291667, "fair_value": 0.374038, "relative_strength": -35.849585, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.808982, "energy": 35.532076, "activity_lines": [ 0.261333, 0.278545, 0.282095, 0.286215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.21, "volume": 665100, "typical_volume": 876635.0, "trend": 0.288, "fair_value": 0.371667, "relative_strength": -42.385263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.168788, "energy": 59.4537, "activity_lines": [ 0.239333, 0.265818, 0.274619, 0.280946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.22, "volume": 1230800, "typical_volume": 915690.0, "trend": 0.285, "fair_value": 0.369423, "relative_strength": -38.358017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.644008, "energy": 64.093443, "activity_lines": [ 0.228667, 0.254727, 0.268429, 0.276559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }